Signal performance, measured

Same Profit Factor math as the screener. 3,182 symbols, 1,034,996 scored events since 1997. Pick a signal below (White Arrow BUY is the default). Judge Profit Factor first; win rate alone misleads on trend rules.

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Universe. Liquid US common stocks. excludes ETF/crypto/index/commodity/preferred/CEF/BDC/REIT; price≥$5; dollar ADV≥$1,000,000.

Backtest: today's rules on today's universe (survivorship bias). Price-only and no dividends. Best Combo is net of 20 bps round-trip costs; other signal records do not model costs. Updated 2026-10-16.

Select a signal

WHITE ARROW · BUY · Long round trips on White Arrow direction. Enter and exit at the next session open after the signal.

Showing 294,052 scored White Arrow BUY events · 1997-2026 (1.3k still open, excluded)

PROFIT FACTOR

1.42

gross wins / gross losses

AVG RETURN

+1.72%

winsorized to +/- (95/500)%

MEDIAN RETURN

-2.3%

typical trade (often negative on trend rules)

WIN RATE

37.9%

not the score when PF > 1

CLOSED TRADES

294k

1.3k open (excluded)

AVG HOLD

26 bars

trading days

How to read. Trend rules often win about 35-45% of trades. Use profit factor and average return. A negative median with PF > 1 means a few large winners carry the edge.

Grey bars = trades · amber line = win rate. Win rate is descriptive; profit factor is the edge. Dim 50% line is a coin-flip reference, not a target.

EDGE BY MARKET REGIME · color = profit factor (green ≥1)

REGIME	WHITE ARROW · BUY
UNKNOWN	PF 1.3439%863
BULL	PF 1.4640%66k
RECOVERY	PF 1.3938%202k
BEAR	PF 1.1534%22k
CRISIS	PF 2.6729%3.0k

How the edge holds across market regimes. Color = profit factor.

BY ENTRY YEAR · PF · win rate · median · trades

YEAR	WHITE ARROW · BUY
2026	1.2736%-3.0%10k
2025	1.6138%-2.5%16k
2024	1.1934%-3.0%15k
2023	1.7041%-2.0%15k
2022	0.7833%-4.0%14k
2021	1.1537%-2.5%14k
2020	2.7544%-1.8%12k
2019	1.4942%-1.4%13k
2018	0.7227%-3.4%11k
2017	1.7041%-1.4%11k
2016	2.0545%-1.1%11k
2015	0.7530%-2.9%11k
2014	1.1338%-1.6%10k
2013	2.1346%-0.7%9.6k
2012	1.7041%-1.6%9.5k
2011	0.7331%-3.0%10k
2010	1.8144%-1.4%9.0k
2009	2.4445%-1.3%9.1k
2008	0.5026%-5.0%8.7k
2007	0.7829%-3.0%8.5k
2006	1.4538%-1.8%8.1k
2005	1.8542%-1.2%7.4k
2004	1.4940%-1.4%7.4k
2003	3.3950%-0.1%7.3k
2002	1.0335%-2.7%6.7k
2001	1.6241%-1.7%6.6k
2000	1.0734%-3.2%6.8k
1999	1.5233%-3.0%6.3k
1998	1.2737%-2.5%5.6k
1997	2.6749%-0.1%3.8k

Color = profit factor (green ≥1). Win rate and median for context.

RETURN DISTRIBUTION · % per closed trade · White Arrow BUY

Left of 0 = losers, right = winners. Left skew with PF > 1 is normal for trend rules (few large winners). Tails clipped at -95% / +500%.

HOW EACH SIGNAL IS SCORED

White Arrow BUY. Long round trips on White Arrow direction. Next-open entry and exit. 250-session warmup.
White Arrow SELL. Exit-timing score (move avoided until re-entry). Not a short. Often weak alone.
Exhaustion. The scored rule is a fixed 21-session horizon after a release. The EXH BUY tab also shows a descriptive stock-path table at the same calendar DTEs as /bull-spreads (median / P(up) / path −12%). That table is context, not a forecast and not a second Profit Factor.
Best Combo V5. One stable-evidence state-machine replay. Qualified point-in-time out-of-fold transitions, net of 20 bps round-trip costs, become published calls; otherwise the model abstains.
Regime. Hold BULL/RECOVERY; exit on BEAR/CRISIS (same as screener Regime Profit Factor). Next-open entry and exit, 250-session warmup.
Caps. Returns clipped to -95% / +500% before aggregates. Open trades excluded from closed stats.

Full model detail: Methodology · Docs · Signal performance

Research only. Not investment advice. Past backtests do not guarantee future results. Terms.

The same signals, on today's tape

Every screener row carries the profit factor behind its call, measured the way this page measures it.

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