What is an HMM market regime?
A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) treats the market as switching among a few unobserved states that emit the prices, volatility, and cross-asset features you can see. LOPJLB’s market model has exactly four states — BULL, RECOVERY, BEAR, and CRISIS — and publishes the current label, how many sessions it has held, and the four posterior probabilities. This page is research documentation, not a trade signal and not investment advice.
What does LOPJLB’s HMM market regime actually tell you?
It tells you which of four hidden macro states the cross-asset model assigned to the latest session, how long that label has stuck, and how much probability mass sat on each state. It does not tell you to buy or sell. Per-ticker regime on a stock page is a separate label for that name’s own path — it can disagree with the market label.
Last reviewed: 2026-10-27 · Research lead: Pierre Brunelle
Research only. Not investment advice. LOPJLB is not a broker or RIA.
What is the current market regime?
Live fields from the public HMM endpoint. Unavailable and dashes mean the snapshot was missing at render.
- BEAR
- current market regime
- 7
- days in regime
- 2026-10-26
- as of
- BULL
- previous state
Public JSON: /bff/api/hmm/latest · embed widget · FOMC desk conditions · methodology
What are LOPJLB’s four HMM states?
Exactly four public labels. Older history files may say RANGING or BULL_QUIET; those map to RECOVERY and BULL.
Bull
Uptrend, calmer volatility, healthier credit. Longs and buy-the-dip logic are less punished than in stress states. Still a label, not a buy order.
Recovery
Emerging from stress. Mean reversion often dominates and signals can fire early. Treat a fresh Recovery as a change in context, not a completed repair.
Bear
Downtrend established. The desk tightens interpretation: same BUY is not the same trade as a BUY in Bull. Demand more confirmation.
Crisis
Stress peak. Best Combo V5 applies an immediate CRISIS risk override. Cash, hedges, and size cuts are research context, not a recommendation.
How does market regime differ from per-ticker regime?
One session label for the market. One path label per name. An SMA filter is a different, simpler object.
| Capability | Market HMM | Per-ticker regime | SMA trend filter |
|---|---|---|---|
| What is labelled | Market HMM Cross-asset U.S. macro session | Per-ticker regime That symbol’s own path | SMA trend filter Price vs a moving average |
| State count | Market HMM Exactly 4 (BULL, RECOVERY, BEAR, CRISIS) | Per-ticker regime Same four names, per ticker | SMA trend filter Usually 2 (above / below) |
| Days-in-regime | Market HMM Yes Sessions in the current MAP state | Per-ticker regime Yes | SMA trend filter Partial |
| State probabilities | Market HMM Yes Posterior mass on all four states | Per-ticker regime Partial | SMA trend filter - |
| Public live endpoint | Market HMM Yes /bff/api/hmm/latest | Per-ticker regime Partial | SMA trend filter - |
How does an HMM regime model work?
An HMM assumes a hidden discrete state that you do not observe directly. Each day the state emits features you can observe — returns, volatility, drawdowns, credit, rates, and related cross-asset moves. The filter infers the most likely current state (the printed label) and a probability for every state.
LOPJLB’s market model is a four-state HMM over cross-asset features (equities, rates, credit, volatility, and related series), with smoothing so the label does not chatter every session. Inference runs with the nightly desk. Proprietary feature weights and transition details stay in methodology; this page only names the public contract: four states, days-in-regime, probabilities.
How do I read days-in-regime and probabilities?
Days-in-regime is the number of consecutive sessions the printed label has held. A one- or two-day Bull is a new stamp; a forty-day Bull is a held state. Use it as freshness, not as a countdown.
Probabilities are the model’s posterior mass on BULL, RECOVERY, BEAR, and CRISIS that session. The printed label is the selected state. A 51% Bull with 40% Recovery is a close call; a 90% Crisis is a concentrated one. Do not treat a slim majority as certainty.
Read the live object at https://www.lopjlb.com/bff/api/hmm/latest. Fields to look at: regime, days_in_regime, probabilities, previous_regime, and date.
What is the difference between market regime and per-ticker regime?
Market regime is one cross-asset label for the U.S. macro session. It is what /bff/api/hmm/latest, the nav tape, the FOMC desk conditions panel, and the /embed/regime widget show.
Per-ticker regime is that symbol’s own path label — the regime column and REG D (days in regime) on the screener and /stock pages. A name can sit in Bear while the market HMM is still Bull. Read both: market for session context, ticker for the name in front of you.
What questions come up?
What is an HMM market regime?
A Hidden Markov Model infers a hidden market state from observed features. LOPJLB’s market HMM assigns each session to BULL, RECOVERY, BEAR, or CRISIS and publishes days-in-regime plus the four probabilities.
How many HMM states does LOPJLB use?
Exactly four: BULL, RECOVERY, BEAR, and CRISIS. Older history files may say RANGING or BULL_QUIET; those map to RECOVERY and BULL on public pages.
How do I read days-in-regime?
It is the number of consecutive sessions the current printed state has held. It measures how fresh or stale the label is. It is not a forecast of how many days remain.
Is the market regime the same as a ticker’s regime?
No. Market regime is the cross-asset session label from /bff/api/hmm/latest. Per-ticker regime is that symbol’s own path. They can disagree. Both are research context.
Is the HMM regime a buy or sell signal?
No. Regime is context that conditions how other signals are read. Directional BUY/SELL is a separate model. Neither is an order and neither is personalized advice.
Is this investment advice?
LOPJLB is a quantitative research desk, not a broker and not a registered investment adviser. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Read today’s market regime.
Live label from the public HMM endpoint · research only · not investment advice