[SD50]
2026-06-10

25.3% CAGR OVER 20 YEARS.
THE PERFORMANCE SCORE BEHIND THE SCREENER.

SD50 is the portfolio built on the Performance Score (PERF) - one of several signal families that power the screener alongside Fundamentals, Regime, Direction, and more. It blends 13 orthogonal sub-signals into a monthly-rebalanced portfolio. 240-month backtest, live since August 2025.

Feb 2006 - Apr 2026·Backtested prior to Aug 2025·Gross of fees
METHODAll signals: PERF · FUND · DIR · Regime →SCREENER9,300+ tickers ranked daily →
[240 MONTHS]

HEADLINE PERFORMANCE

CAGR (20yr)
25.3%
SPY10.3%+15.0pp
Sharpe (monthly)
0.41
SPY0.21+0.20
Max Drawdown
-41.2%
SPY-41.7%+0.5pp
Post-GFC Max DD
-13.6%
SPY-24.8%+11.2pp
Win Rate (monthly)
67%
SPY65%
Positive Calendar Years
20 of 21
SPY16 of 21
$100K INVESTED · FEB 2006 → APR 2026
$9.11M
SD50
$11.1M
SD13 (13-STOCK)
$716K
SPY
[CALENDAR YEARS]

20 OF 21 POSITIVE YEARS

* partial year · † YTD through Apr 2026

YEARSD50SPYALPHA
2006*+8.2%+10.4%-2.2pp
2007+14.7%+3.2%+11.4pp
2008-38.3%-38.3%+0.0pp
2009+37.6%+50.7%-13.1pp
2010+26.7%+18.2%+8.5pp
2011+0.9%-0.2%+1.1pp
2012+11.1%+13.5%-2.4pp
2013+43.9%+29.7%+14.3pp
2014+18.7%+11.3%+7.4pp
2015+13.3%-0.8%+14.1pp
2016+18.1%+9.6%+8.4pp
2017+77.3%+19.4%+58.0pp
2018+6.1%-6.3%+12.5pp
2019+34.2%+28.8%+5.5pp
2020+90.1%+16.2%+73.9pp
2021+38.8%+27.0%+11.8pp
2022+2.1%-19.5%+21.6pp
2023+30.4%+24.3%+6.1pp
2024+55.2%+23.3%+31.9pp
2025+56.6%+16.4%+40.3pp
2026†+23.5%+5.4%+18.1pp
AVG+27.2%+12.4%+14.8pp
[CONVEXITY]

ASYMMETRIC RETURN PROFILE

UPSIDE CAPTURE
126%
of SPY's up-month returns
DOWNSIDE CAPTURE
59%
of SPY's down-month losses
POST-GFC MAX DRAWDOWN
-13.6%
vs SPY -24.8% (same period)
INFORMATION RATIO
1.15
top decile among active equity strategies
Rolling 12-month Sharpe positive in 95% of windows.
[STRESS TESTS]

BEHAVIOR IN CRISIS

Alpha in 5 of 6 major drawdowns. 2008 was the lone full-participation event.

EVENTSD50SPYRELATIVE
Global Financial Crisis (2008)-38.3%-38.3%+0.0pp
COVID Crash (Mar 2020)-3.3%-13.0%+9.7pp
2022 Bear Market (full year)+2.1%-19.5%+21.6pp
2018 Q4 Correction (worst mo.)-8.3%-9.3%+1.0pp
2025 Tariff Selloff (worst mo.)-2.7%-5.9%+3.2pp
2026-03 (AI capex fears + Iran)-4.5%-5.2%+0.7pp
[RISK]

LOW MARKET DEPENDENCE

R² = 0.57. most of SD50 return is non-SPY alpha.

Annualized Std Dev16.9%14.9%
Beta (vs SPY)0.851.00
R-squared (vs SPY)0.571.00Most return independent of broad market
Upside Capture126%100%
Downside Capture59%100%
Information Ratio1.15-Top decile of active equity strategies
Sortino Ratio0.720.29
[ARCHITECTURE]

PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

Systematic, rules-based, no discretionary overrides.

REBALANCE
Monthly
1st trading day. Prior month-end data only.
POSITIONS
40-55
~66% monthly turnover (~792% ann.)
SLEEVES
13 sub-signals
Quality, Momentum, Contrarian, Mean-Reversion, Coiled Spring, Crisis Alpha, Regime…
UNIVERSE
U.S. equities + ETFs
Point-in-time constituent data. No survivorship bias.
LEVERAGE
None
Long-only, fully funded.
SD13
13-stock concentrate
One pick per sleeve. Higher conviction.
REGIME
4-state HMM
BULL / RECOVERY / BEAR / CRISIS overlay.
CAPACITY
$200-500M
Majority mega/large-cap. Multi-day execution.
[ALLOCATION]

MAY 2026 SNAPSHOT

49 positions. Top 10 = ~52.5% weight. Monthly rotation.

TOP 10 HOLDINGS (SD50)
SYMBOLWEIGHTSLEEVE(S)
AVGO6.4%Multiple + Index
KLAC6.1%Contrarian
FBLA5.6%Quality
L5.5%Momentum + Quality
GOOGL5.4%Multiple + Index
WMT5.4%Multiple
HBM5.1%Signal Support + Crisis
GEV4.5%Regime Momentum
BWET4.5%ETFs
SNDK4.1%Confluence + Regime Momentum
[SD13]

BEST-IDEA CONCENTRATE

13 positions, one per sleeve. Same signals, higher conviction.

MAY 2026 HOLDINGS
Core StrategyGOOGL10%
QualityFBLA10%
Signal SupportROAD9%
ContrarianKLAC8%
Coiled SpringGVA8%
Crisis AlphaPDFS8%
ETFsBWET8%
Regime MomentumGEV8%
Mean ReversionAVGO8%
MomentumL6%
Confluence RecoverySNDK6%
TrendGKOS6%
Risk-ParityWMT5%
SD13 vs SD50 vs SPY
SD13SD50SPY
CAGR26.5%25.3%10.3%
Sharpe (monthly)0.380.410.21
Max Drawdown-44.2%-41.2%-41.7%
Post-GFC Max DD-16.6%-13.6%-24.8%
Win Rate67%67%65%
Positions1340-55500
$100K →$11.1M$9.1M$716K
[SIGNAL SERVICE · PRO]

COPY THE SD50 PORTFOLIO MONTHLY

Pro users receive the updated allocation on the 1st trading day each month. Choose your service level:

LEVEL 1
Signal Feed
View the live allocation on this page. Tickers, weights, and sleeve attribution updated monthly.
Included with Pro
LEVEL 2
Broker-Ready CSV
Download a formatted CSV you can import directly into your brokerage. Includes quantity sizing for your account value.
Export above ↑
LEVEL 3
Auto-Execute
Connect your Alpaca brokerage account and we execute the monthly rebalance automatically. Coming soon.
Coming Q3 2026
[VALIDATION]

BACKTEST METHODOLOGY

Reproducible from cached data. Code audit available under NDA.

  • NO SURVIVORSHIP BIASUniverse reconstructed monthly from point-in-time constituent data.
  • NO LOOK-AHEADAllocations use only prior month-end data. 1-day regime-signal lag.
  • COSTSHeadline figures gross of fees. Estimated drag ~0.5-1.0% at institutional rates.
  • 240-MONTH SAMPLE2008 GFC, COVID, 2022 bear, 2025-26 tariffs. Not cherry-picked.
PARTNERSHIP

Open to sub-advisory, SMA, LP, or licensing structures. Strategy IP remains with the developer. Full prospectus, attribution, and code audit available under NDA.

REQUEST PROSPECTUS →
[RISK FACTORS]

PRINCIPAL RISKS

Backtest Risk
Pre-Aug 2025 returns are hypothetical. Actual trading may differ due to slippage, costs, and market impact.
Model Risk
Quantitative models may degrade due to regime changes, structural breaks, or factor crowding.
Concentration
Top 10 holdings ≈ 53% of portfolio. Single-stock adverse moves can materially impact returns.
Liquidity
Small/micro-cap sleeves may experience market impact at scale during monthly rebalancing.
Turnover
~66% monthly turnover (~792% annualized). Higher transaction costs and short-term capital gains.
Market Risk
Long-only, β ≈ 0.85 to SPY. Expected to decline in broad selloffs, though historically less than benchmark.
Factor Crowding
Momentum-style sleeves may underperform during regime transitions or when similar strategies become crowded.
[DISCLAIMER]

This page is for informational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Past performance, whether actual or backtested, is not indicative of future results. All performance figures are gross of fees and transaction costs unless otherwise noted. Backtested returns prior to August 2025 are hypothetical; live trading has been in effect since August 2025. Contact: contact@lopjlb.com.