2026-07-25

19.8% CAGR OVER 20 YEARS.
THE PERFORMANCE SCORE BEHIND THE SCREENER.

SD50 is the portfolio built on the Performance Score (PERF) - one of several signal families that power the screener alongside Fundamentals, Regime, Direction, and more. It blends 13 orthogonal sub-signals into a monthly-rebalanced portfolio. 246-month backtest, live since August 2025.

2006-01 - 2026-06·Backtested prior to Aug 2025·Gross of fees
METHODAll signals: PERF · FUND · DIR · Regime →SCREENER12,000+ tickers ranked daily →

HEADLINE PERFORMANCE

CAGR (20yr)
19.8%
SPY9.0%+10.8pp
Sharpe (monthly)
0.34
SPY0.19+0.15
Max Drawdown
-37.7%
SPY-52.2%+14.5pp
Post-GFC Max DD
-15.7%
SPY-24.8%+9.1pp
Win Rate (monthly)
64.2%
SPY64.2%
Positive Calendar Years
19 of 21
SPY16 of 21
Loading live MTD…

SD50 / SD14 vs VTI · VTV · FTEC · SPMO · SPY

Normalized growth curves with window-aware risk metrics. Toggle series, change range, drag to inspect.

0%+314%+628%+942%+1256%+1570%2015-122017-092019-062021-032022-122024-092026-06SD50SD14SPYVTIVTVFTECSPMOlopjlb.com
COMMON · DEC 2015 - JUN 2026 · 127 moCommon window: longest period where SPMO and FTEC both have complete records.
METRICSD50SD14SPYVTIVTVFTECSPMO
RETURN
CAGR+28.5%+32.9%+13.2%+12.8%+9.8%+22.9%+19.1%
Sharpe (mo)0.430.470.260.240.210.320.32
Sortino (mo)0.781.020.360.330.280.550.53
Calmar1.811.930.530.500.380.700.85
RISK
Max Drawdown-15.7%-17.0%-24.8%-25.7%-25.7%-32.8%-22.4%
Vol (ann.)+18.0%+18.7%+15.3%+15.8%+14.7%+20.8%+17.4%
Win Rate67%71%67%66%63%63%64%
VS SPY
Beta (vs SPY)0.930.911.001.030.871.210.98
Alpha (ann.)+16.2%+20.9%--0.7%-1.6%+6.9%+6.1%
Up Capture215%268%-101%61%266%125%
Down Capture79%72%-101%96%102%90%
Info Ratio1.201.35--0.16-0.460.950.63
BT = backtested (hypothetical, pre-Aug 2025) · LIVE = live ETF data · Over the common window SD50 ~2× SPY CAGR at lower drawdown. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
$100K INVESTED · JAN 2006 → JUN 2026
$4.04M
SD50
$5.79M
SD14 (14-STOCK)
$586K
SPY

18 OF 20 POSITIVE YEARS

* 2026 partial (Jan-May). Positive alpha in 15 of 20 years.

YEARSD50SD14SPYVTIVTVFTECSPMOALPHA
2006+4.8%+4.7%+11.1%+10.1%+15.8%---6.3pp
2007+26.6%+14.9%+3.2%+3.5%-2.7%--+23.3pp
2008-22.7%-22.4%-38.3%-38.3%-38.0%--+15.6pp
2009-4.3%-3.3%+23.5%+26.0%+16.0%---27.8pp
2010+17.6%+22.5%+12.8%+15.2%+11.7%--+4.8pp
2011+4.7%+2.3%-0.2%-1.0%-1.6%--+4.9pp
2012+15.4%+9.9%+13.5%+14.0%+12.0%--+1.9pp
2013+53.5%+57.0%+29.7%+30.9%+29.9%+7.5%-+23.8pp
2014+22.2%+33.4%+11.3%+10.5%+10.6%+17.0%-+10.9pp
2015+10.9%+12.3%-0.8%-1.6%-3.5%+3.6%-1.5%+11.7pp
2016+3.7%+11.3%+9.6%+10.6%+14.1%+12.4%+5.3%-6.0pp
2017+19.0%+37.8%+19.4%+19.0%+14.3%+35.4%+26.7%-0.4pp
2018+10.0%+16.4%-6.3%-7.0%-7.9%-1.5%-1.9%+16.3pp
2019+32.7%+31.9%+28.8%+28.2%+22.4%+47.2%+24.1%+3.9pp
2020+60.1%+77.5%+16.2%+19.0%-0.7%+44.2%+26.2%+43.9pp
2021+36.9%+27.7%+27.0%+24.0%+23.7%+29.6%+21.9%+9.8pp
2022+7.2%-5.4%-19.5%-20.8%-4.6%-30.2%-12.0%+26.7pp
2023+23.7%+36.2%+24.3%+24.1%+6.5%+52.0%+15.4%-0.6pp
2024+46.2%+50.4%+23.3%+22.2%+13.2%+28.7%+45.1%+22.9pp
2025+32.4%+35.1%+16.4%+15.7%+12.8%+21.5%+25.6%+16.0pp
2026*+37.4%+41.6%+9.5%+10.4%+14.1%+27.1%+35.4%+27.9pp
AVG+20.0%+22.5%+10.3%+10.2%+7.2%+20.6%+15.9%+9.8pp

ASYMMETRIC RETURN PROFILE

UPSIDE CAPTURE
115%
of SPY's up-month returns
DOWNSIDE CAPTURE
63%
of SPY's down-month losses
POST-GFC MAX DRAWDOWN
-15.7%
vs SPY -24.8% (same period)
INFORMATION RATIO
0.86
above the 0.5-0.7 manager target
Rolling 12-month Sharpe positive in 95% of windows.

BEHAVIOR IN CRISIS

Alpha in 5 of 6 major drawdowns. 2008 was the lone full-participation event.

EVENTSD50SPYRELATIVE
Global Financial Crisis (2008)-22.7%-38.3%+15.6pp
COVID Crash (Mar 2020)-10.0%-13.0%+3.0pp
2022 Bear Market (full year)+7.2%-19.5%+26.7pp
2018 Q4 (worst month)-7.9%-9.3%+1.4pp
2026-03 (AI capex fears + Iran)-4.4%-5.2%+0.8pp

LOW MARKET DEPENDENCE

R² = 0.57. most of SD50 return is non-SPY alpha.

Annualized Std Dev16.8%15.2%
Beta (vs SPY)0.831.00
R-squared (vs SPY)0.571.00Most return independent of broad market
Upside Capture115%100%
Downside Capture63%100%
Information Ratio0.86-Near 1.0. above the 0.5-0.7 manager target
Sortino Ratio0.480.15

PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

Systematic, rules-based, no discretionary overrides.

REBALANCE
Monthly
1st trading day. Prior month-end data only.
POSITIONS
40-63
~76% monthly turnover (~912% ann.)
SLEEVES
14 sub-signals
Quality, Alpha Leaders, Momentum, Mean-Reversion, Coiled Spring, Crisis Alpha, Confluence, Trend, Regime…
UNIVERSE
U.S. equities + ETFs
Point-in-time constituent data. No survivorship bias.
LEVERAGE
None
Long-only, fully funded.
SD14
14-stock concentrate
One pick per sleeve. Higher conviction.
REGIME
4-state HMM
BULL / RECOVERY / BEAR / CRISIS overlay.
CAPACITY
$200-500M
Majority mega/large-cap. Multi-day execution.
[SIGNAL SERVICE]

COPY THE PORTFOLIO MONTHLY

New allocations publish on the 1st trading day each month. CSV/JSON need Pro. Full channel notes in docs · developers.

Live MTDPUBLIC
Current-month SD50 + SD14 performance vs benchmarks (panel above).
RSS feedPUBLIC
Monthly SD14 allocation history for Feedly, Inoreader, or any reader.
CSV / JSONPRO
Current allocation. Optional ?variant=sd14|sd50 and ?account_value=100000.
CLIPUBLIC / PRO
Install once, then pull the public feed or Pro allocation JSON.
uv tool install lopjlb
lopjlb sd50
lopjlb sd50 allocation
SkillFREE
Cursor / Agent Skills package for research workflows. · GitHub
npx skills add lopjlb/lopjlb-skill
MCPENTERPRISE
HTTP MCP for hosts. Streamable tools over the BFF. · Setup
POST /bff/api/mcp

BACKTEST METHODOLOGY

Reproducible from cached data. Code audit available under NDA.

  • NO SURVIVORSHIP BIASUniverse reconstructed monthly from point-in-time constituent data.
  • NO LOOK-AHEADAllocations use only prior month-end data. 1-day regime-signal lag.
  • COSTSHeadline figures gross of fees. Modeled gross-to-net drag ~1.8-2.2% at ~76% monthly turnover.
  • 245-MONTH SAMPLE2008 GFC, COVID, 2022 bear, 2025-26 tariffs. Not cherry-picked.
PARTNERSHIP

Open to sub-advisory, SMA, LP, or licensing structures. Strategy IP remains with the developer. Full prospectus, attribution, and code audit available under NDA.

REQUEST PROSPECTUS →

PRINCIPAL RISKS

Backtest Risk
Pre-Aug 2025 returns are hypothetical. Actual trading may differ due to slippage, costs, and market impact.
Model Risk
Quantitative models may degrade due to regime changes, structural breaks, or factor crowding.
Concentration
Top 10 holdings ≈ 44% of portfolio. Single-stock adverse moves can materially impact returns.
Liquidity
Small/micro-cap sleeves may experience market impact at scale during monthly rebalancing.
Turnover
~76% monthly turnover (~912% annualized). Higher transaction costs and short-term capital gains.
Market Risk
Long-only, β ≈ 0.83 to SPY. Expected to decline in broad selloffs, though historically less than benchmark.
Factor Crowding
Momentum-style sleeves may underperform during regime transitions or when similar strategies become crowded.
[DISCLAIMER]

This page is for informational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Past performance, whether actual or backtested, is not indicative of future results. All performance figures are gross of fees and transaction costs unless otherwise noted. Backtested returns prior to August 2025 are hypothetical; live trading has been in effect since August 2025. Contact: contact@lopjlb.com.