FOUR PROPRIETARY MODELS. THREE PUBLIC OVERLAYS. ONE DECISION ENGINE.
Every signal, score, and tier on this platform is the output of four proprietary models, each backtested and validated out-of-sample, and three public technical overlays re-implemented from source with full per-bar state persistence.
This page documents what each system does, how it is validated, and where the disclosure boundary sits. Proprietary models disclose outputs, validation windows, and realized track records; feature definitions and parameters are withheld under the standard quant-disclosure model. Public overlays are documented in full.
Audience: active traders, portfolio managers, allocators, and institutional research teams evaluating signal quality. All performance figures are from historical backtests and are not indicative of future results.
[METHOD·PROPRIETARY]
FOUR PROPRIETARY MODELS
Intellectual property. Outputs and track records are disclosed. Feature definitions are not.
[METHOD·WA]
DIRECTIONAL SIGNAL
5-model composite. Per-stock best-combo selection. Fires on momentum confirmation, not prediction.
The Directional Signal is a daily BUY/SELL classification computed independently for every ticker in the universe. It is not a single indicator. It is a composite of 5 independent sub-signals. Each capturing a distinct edge. that are combined per-stock using the best subset selected by out-of-sample profit factor optimization.
PIPELINE
5 independent sub-signals. trend, flip detection, volatility compression, momentum persistence, and microstructure. Each has its own parameter set and produces a binary BUY/SELL per bar.
Per-stock best-combo. for each ticker, the sub-signal combination with the highest out-of-sample profit factor on that specific name is selected. AAPL's best combo is not NVDA's.
Profit-factor gate. The signal only fires when the selected combo's historical PF for that ticker clears the minimum threshold. No track record, no arrow.
Regime filter. The same signal is attenuated in CRISIS, tightened in BEAR. Regime context (METHOD·REG) modulates signal confidence before output.
VALIDATION
Every arrow carries a per-stock profit factor. The ratio of gross winning trades to gross losing trades on that exact ticker over an 8-year window. Arrows are backtested daily across 9,000+ symbols since 2017. Decayed edges are automatically down-weighted. No static rules.
Triple Exhaustion detects overbought/oversold conditions using a three-indicator confluence gate combining MACD-Z, Stochastic, and DMI. All three indicators must hit extreme simultaneously for a bar to enter an exhaustion zone, with a 4-tier severity ladder quantifying how sustained the condition is. Per-bar z-scores are persisted and feed back into the directional signal pipeline.
CONFLUENCE GATE
All three conditions must hold simultaneously for bar t to enter an exhaustion zone. Seller extreme = overbought (fade up-move). Buyer extreme = oversold (fade down-move).
Once the confluence gate fires, the severity tier is determined by |MACD-Z| at peak. Tier colors match the chart overlay palette.
●
REGULAR|z| ≥ 2
First zone entry. Caution.
◉
SUPER|z| ≥ 3
Standard exhaustion. Counter-trend watch.
⊛
ULTRA|z| ≥ 5
Rare intensity. High-probability reversal zone.
✦
MEGA|z| ≥ 7
Extreme. Historically marks major inflection points.
RELEASE MARKERS
When the exhaustion zone ends. The confluence gate breaks. a one-shot release starburst fires on the chart:
✦BUY RELEASE
Fires after a buy-exhaustion zone (oversold) ends.
Interpretation: fade the down-move.
✦SELL RELEASE
Fires after a sell-exhaustion zone (overbought) ends.
Interpretation: fade the up-move.
The arrow carries the peak |z| from the just-ended extreme run. not the trigger bar's z-on-release. This captures true severity.
LOPJLB implementation. Indicator definitions (MACD, Stochastic, DMI) are public; the confluence gate, 4-tier severity ladder, z-threshold calibration, and integration with the directional signal pipeline are proprietary. Full per-bar z-score timeseries is persisted and available in the chart overlay.
[METHOD·PRINCIPLES]
OPERATING PRINCIPLES
Three constraints the entire stack respects.
EVIDENCE BEFORE NARRATIVE
No call is published on thematic conviction alone. A signal fires only when its per-ticker, out-of-sample profit factor clears the validation gate. When the numbers break, the signal disappears from the list.
SIGNAL-LEVEL DIVERSIFICATION
Single-indicator strategies collapse at regime transitions. The composite blends independent sub-signals so aggregate Sharpe exceeds any individual sleeve. Diversification is applied at the signal level before it reaches the portfolio level.
TRANSPARENT OUTPUTS, PROPRIETARY INPUTS
Every published strategy, signal, and profit factor is accompanied by its full statistical record. The feature definitions and parameters that produce them are not disclosed. This mirrors the quant-ETF disclosure model.
Disclaimer. Exact formulas, parameter values, feature definitions, and signal weights for the four proprietary models are not disclosed. The three public overlays are documented in full above. All performance figures are from historical backtests and are not indicative of future results. LOPJLB publishes independent investment research and does not provide personalized investment advice.