FOUR PROPRIETARY MODELS. THREE PUBLIC OVERLAYS. ONE DECISION ENGINE.
Every signal, score, and tier on this platform is the output of four proprietary models, each backtested and validated out-of-sample, and three public technical overlays re-implemented from source with full per-bar state persistence.
This page documents what each system does, how it is validated, and where the disclosure boundary sits. Proprietary models disclose outputs, validation windows, and realized track records; feature definitions and parameters are withheld under the standard quant-disclosure model. Public overlays are documented in full.
Audience: active traders, portfolio managers, allocators, and institutional research teams evaluating signal quality. All performance figures are from historical backtests and are not indicative of future results.
Options context (not options flow): screener IV ATM / IV-%ile / IV RNK and the chart ATM IV layer are archive-derived ATM call implied vol for CBOE weekly-options names — liquidity context, not a scored signal. See also the markdown methodology note on ATM IV.
FOUR PROPRIETARY MODELS
Intellectual property. Outputs and track records are disclosed. Feature definitions are not.
DIRECTIONAL SIGNAL
5-model composite. Per-stock best-combo selection. Fires on momentum confirmation, not prediction.
The Directional Signal is a daily BUY/SELL classification computed independently for every ticker in the universe. It is not a single indicator. It is a composite of 5 independent sub-signals. Each capturing a distinct edge. that are combined per-stock using a chronological discovery / validation / test Best Combo search with published metrics from the held-out test window only (net of round-trip costs).
PIPELINE
5 independent sub-signals. trend, flip detection, volatility compression, momentum persistence, and microstructure. Each has its own parameter set and produces a binary BUY/SELL per bar.
Per-stock best-combo. for each ticker with ≥8 years of daily history, recipes are ranked on a discovery window (first 60%), selected on validation (next 20%, net of 10 bps round-trip), and scored once on an untouched test window (final 20%). Published Best Combo OOS PF is the test-window net figure only. AAPL's recipe is not NVDA's. Legacy full-history in-sample gross PF is retained as a diagnostic and is never substituted for OOS.
Profit-factor gate. Proven-combo screens and alerts require a valid OOS status plus minimum test-window trades. No held-out track record, no gate pass.
Regime filter. The same signal is attenuated in CRISIS, tightened in BEAR. Regime context (METHOD·REG) modulates signal confidence before output.
VALIDATION
Every arrow carries a per-stock profit factor on that ticker. Best Combo published PF is the held-out test window only (60/20/20, ≥8y, net of 10 bps); legacy full-history in-sample gross is labeled diagnostic and never substituted. Arrows are recomputed daily across 12,000+ symbols. Decayed edges are automatically down-weighted.
Triple Exhaustion detects overbought/oversold conditions using a three-indicator confluence gate combining MACD-Z, Stochastic, and DMI. All three indicators must hit extreme simultaneously for a bar to enter an exhaustion zone, with a 4-tier severity ladder quantifying how sustained the condition is. Per-bar z-scores are persisted and feed back into the directional signal pipeline.
CONFLUENCE GATE
All three conditions must hold simultaneously for bar t to enter an exhaustion zone. Seller extreme = overbought (fade up-move). Buyer extreme = oversold (fade down-move).
Once the confluence gate fires, the severity tier is determined by |MACD-Z| at peak. Tier colors match the chart overlay palette.
●
REGULAR|z| ≥ 2
First zone entry. Caution.
◉
SUPER|z| ≥ 3
Standard exhaustion. Counter-trend watch.
⊛
ULTRA|z| ≥ 5
Rare intensity. High-probability reversal zone.
✦
MEGA|z| ≥ 7
Extreme. Historically marks major inflection points.
RELEASE MARKERS
When the exhaustion zone ends. The confluence gate breaks. a one-shot release starburst fires on the chart:
✦BUY RELEASE
Fires after a buy-exhaustion zone (oversold) ends.
Interpretation: fade the down-move.
✦SELL RELEASE
Fires after a sell-exhaustion zone (overbought) ends.
Interpretation: fade the up-move.
The arrow carries the peak |z| from the just-ended extreme run. not the trigger bar's z-on-release. This captures true severity.
LOPJLB implementation. Indicator definitions (MACD, Stochastic, DMI) are public; the confluence gate, 4-tier severity ladder, z-threshold calibration, and integration with the directional signal pipeline are proprietary. Full per-bar z-score timeseries is persisted and available in the chart overlay.
OPERATING PRINCIPLES
Three constraints the entire stack respects.
EVIDENCE BEFORE NARRATIVE
No call is published on thematic conviction alone. Best Combo gates use the held-out test-window net profit factor (not full-history in-sample gross). When the numbers break, the signal disappears from the list.
SIGNAL-LEVEL DIVERSIFICATION
Single-indicator strategies collapse at regime transitions. The composite blends independent sub-signals so aggregate Sharpe exceeds any individual sleeve. Diversification is applied at the signal level before it reaches the portfolio level.
TRANSPARENT OUTPUTS, PROPRIETARY INPUTS
Every published strategy, signal, and profit factor is accompanied by its full statistical record. The feature definitions and parameters that produce them are not disclosed. This mirrors the quant-ETF disclosure model.
Disclaimer. Exact formulas, parameter values, feature definitions, and signal weights for the four proprietary models are not disclosed. The three public overlays are documented in full above. All performance figures are from historical backtests and are not indicative of future results. LOPJLB publishes independent investment research and does not provide personalized investment advice.