The next Fed decision,
dated, priced, and in context.
A running policy desk built from public inputs: the meeting calendar, market-implied decision odds, the Treasury curve, and our own market regime model. The FOMC staff's pre-meeting briefing book (the Tealbook) stays embargoed for five years; this page is the shadow version you can read today, refreshed continuously.
Next meeting
The FOMC meets eight times a year, roughly every six weeks. Decision at 2:00 PM ET, press conference thirty minutes later. Every meeting appears on the economic calendar with consensus and prior.
Market-implied decision odds
Sourced from our prediction markets sync (Kalshi + Polymarket, 800+ finance and macro markets). Odds are traded prices, so they move with the news cycle in real time.
Rates & the curve
Full curve history and the 2s10s tracker live on the treasury rates page.
Financial conditions · house model
How the regime model works, and how it gates the platform's signals: methodology.
The docket
The full macro schedule, all countries and impacts, is on the calendar.
About this desk
Before every FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve staff prepare the Tealbook: Book A covers the economic outlook, Book B lays out policy alternatives. It is the single most information-dense document in U.S. monetary policy, and it is released to the public with a five-year lag. Historical Greenbooks and Tealbooks are archived on FRASER and the Board's site, and the staff's principal macro model, FRB/US, is public, code and data included.
Nearly all of the Tealbook's inputs are public on day one. This desk assembles them continuously: the meeting calendar and macro docket from our calendar sync, market-implied decision odds from prediction markets, the Treasury curve, and financial conditions from the house regime model. Next on the roadmap: a generated pre-meeting brief in the staff's own register, scored against each real Tealbook as the five-year embargo unlocks it.
Questions we get
When is the next FOMC meeting?
The next FOMC rate decision is Wed, Oct 28 · 2:00 PM ET, with consensus at 4% (current target 4%). Decisions are announced at 2:00 PM ET with a press conference thirty minutes later. This page and the LOPJLB economic calendar always show the next scheduled meeting.
What is the Fed expected to do at the next meeting?
The odds panel on this page shows the market-implied probability of each outcome (cut, hold, hike) from real-money prediction markets, updated continuously. These are traded prices, not analyst surveys, so they reprice with every data release and Fed speech.
What is the Tealbook?
The Tealbook is the Federal Reserve staff’s pre-meeting briefing document: Book A covers the economic outlook, Book B the policy alternatives. It is published with a five-year lag; historical editions are archived on FRASER and the Board’s website. This page is a shadow version assembled from the public inputs available today.
Is this the Fed’s actual forecast?
No. The real Tealbook stays confidential for five years. Everything here is built from public data: the meeting calendar, market-implied odds, Treasury yields, and LOPJLB’s own market regime model. It is research and education, not the Fed’s view and not investment advice.
How often does this page update?
The page re-renders every few minutes. Prediction-market odds and the docket refresh continuously from their upstream syncs; Treasury yields update each trading day; the regime model re-runs nightly with the platform’s signal pipeline.
KNOW WHAT THE MARKET EXPECTS
BEFORE THE FED SPEAKS.
Meeting odds, the curve, and the regime, refreshed continuously · free, no login