Daily Market Brief, Nov 16: RECOVERY day 5, VIX 19.30, breadth 42% bullish
2026-11-13 · By Pierre Brunelle · Founder & Research Lead · All notes
Regime & desk call
HMM regime: RECOVERY, day 5 (flipped from BEAR on 2026-11-09). Gross leverage scalar 3.00×, risk-on yes.
| Read | Value |
|---|---|
| State probabilities | BULL 0.0% · BEAR 3.1% · CRISIS 0.0% · RECOVERY 96.9% |
| Risk-off probability (danger) | 3.1% |
| Drawdown-model probability | 67.9% |
| Circuit breakers | REDUCED (1 active), context only |
| Breadth, % of universe bullish | 42% (6,451 of 15,206) |
| Signal flips today | 152 BUY / 340 SELL |
| Breadth velocity 5d / 10d | +4.94% / +1.35% |
| Breadth acceleration 5d | +8.53% |
| Breadth squeeze · stoch K | 0.761 · 82.1 |
| Breadth timing position | LONG (EMA bullish crossover + accelerating breadth) |
| Hedge desk | BUY_PUTS · VIX 19.30 (cheap) |
Desk synthesis. The model remains in the RECOVERY regime, day 5, supporting a gross leverage scalar of 3.00× while the risk‑off probability sits at 3.1%. Breadth is bullish on 42% of the universe with a 5‑day velocity of +4.94%, rates have risen to 4.86% on the 2‑year and 5.10% on the 10‑year Treasury with the 2s10s spread at +24 bp, the VIX term structure is in contango (VIX9D/VIX 0.923, VIX/VIX3M 0.936) and sector rotation favors Energy (+0.95%) and Financial Services (+0.80%) while Technology lags at –1.58%. A break of SPY above the $781.60 resistance level would flip the call for the next session.
Snapshot, corridors & sectors
Cross-asset pairs · VIX term structure · Index corridors · Sector rotation
| Asset | Last | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,561.67 | -0.40% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 25,136.27 | -0.91% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,790.49 | -0.31% |
| Dow | 52,347.55 | +0.10% |
| VIX | 19.30 | +3.21% |
| Gold | 3,886.30 | +0.03% |
| WTI crude | 88.56 | -0.20% |
| Brent crude | 95.84 | +0.02% |
| Bitcoin | 67,358.24 | -1.29% |
| UST 2Y | 4.86% | +13 bp |
| UST 10Y | 5.10% | +12 bp |
| 2s10s spread | +24 bp |
Cross-asset pairs (60-session z-score of the log ratio, or of the price spread for Brent–WTI)
| Pair | Level | Z (60d) | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| BZ–WTI | 7.28 | -0.29 | inside band |
| GDXJ–GLD | 0.2786 | -1.14 | inside band |
| ETH/BTC | 0.0282 | -1.49 | inside band |
VIX term structure (Cboe implied-vol indices by horizon; ratios above 1.00 mean the curve is inverted)
| Horizon | Index | Level | 1D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-day | VIX1D | 18.63 | +2.64 |
| 9-day | VIX9D | 17.82 | +0.31 |
| 30-day | VIX | 19.30 | +0.60 |
| 3-month | VIX3M | 20.62 | +0.56 |
| 6-month | VIX6M | 22.03 | +0.32 |
Vol of VIX index: 101.53.
Index corridors (ATR HiLo trail and flip line)
| ETF | Close | ATR trend | Trail stop | Flip line | Stoch K | IV rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $754.37 | Short, 11d | $787.11 (+4.3%) | Resist $781.60 (+3.6%) | 56.8 | 30 |
| QQQ | $679.89 | Short, 21d | $725.44 (+6.7%) | Resist $762.84 (+12.2%) | 65.7 | 86 |
Sector rotation (S&P 500 constituents, equal-weight 1D change)
| Sector | 1D | Index weight | Names |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +0.95% | 3.8% | 22 |
| Financial Services | +0.80% | 11.9% | 71 |
| Healthcare | +0.60% | 9.9% | 59 |
| Utilities | +0.51% | 2.0% | 31 |
| Consumer Discretionary | +0.20% | 13.7% | 81 |
| Real Estate | -0.10% | 1.8% | 30 |
| Communication Services | -0.20% | 8.3% | 19 |
| Basic Materials | -0.25% | 1.8% | 23 |
| Industrials | -0.41% | 7.4% | 74 |
| Technology | -1.58% | 39.3% | 89 |
Leaders: Energy, Financial Services. Laggards: Industrials, Technology.
Calendar, policy & wire
US macro · Last session's high-impact prints · Policy & geopolitical monitor · Market wire
US macro, Mon Nov 16
| Time ET | Impact | Release | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | Medium | Fed Barr Speech | – | – |
| 08:30 | High | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov) | 10.00 | 25.50 |
| 09:05 | Medium | Fed Williams Speech | – | – |
| 15:30 | Medium | CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions | – | -129.40 |
| 15:30 | Medium | CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions | – | 42.90 |
| 15:30 | Medium | CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions | – | 80.30 |
| 15:30 | Medium | CFTC Gold Speculative net positions | – | 179.50 |
| 18:10 | Medium | Fed Barkin Speech | – | – |
Last session's high-impact prints, Nov 13
| Release | Actual | Consensus | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Producer Price Index MoM (Oct) | 0.30 | 0.40 | -0.10 |
Policy & geopolitical monitor
- China’s beaten-down tech stocks could offer AI with a little less drama · Financial Times
Market wire
- Troubled Sherritt Misses Payment as Liquidity Crisis Deepens · Bloomberg, 7h ago
- China’s beaten-down tech stocks could offer AI with a little less drama · Financial Times, 1h ago
- Stocks Ride Volatile Wave as Nvidia Drama Unfolds · Schaeffers Research, 15h ago
- BoE’s Pill signals no third term as bank chief economist when current stint ends in September 2027 - FT · FinancialJuice, 1h ago
- Nasdaq falls on Friday as Nvidia sells off, but index notches best week since August: Live updates · CNBC, 9h ago
Tape check: The headline on Sherritt’s liquidity crisis is negative, yet the broader market only slipped modestly (S&P ‑0.40%) and the Dow edged up (+0.10%), indicating absorption of the bad news. By contrast, the upbeat story on China’s beaten‑down tech stocks runs counter to the Technology sector’s decline (‑1.58%) and the Nasdaq’s fall (‑0.91%), a clear distribution pattern.
Prediction markets (Kalshi / Polymarket; Fed odds)
| Market | Venue | Yes | 24h Δ | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in November? | polymarket | 97% | +47 pts | $2,245,323 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in November? | polymarket | 100% | +28 pts | $483,617 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | polymarket | 100% | +5 pts | $9,907,027 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | polymarket | 98% | +0 pts | $9,614,949 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | polymarket | 88% | +1 pts | $8,499,097 |
CallCard post-earnings drift read (tone scored from the call transcript; divergence = management tone minus Q&A pressure)
| Ticker | Call | Guidance | Mgmt | Q&A pressure | Divergence | One-liner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIST | Q3 2026 · 2026-11-13 | maintained | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.30 | Milestone Pharma reports strong Q3 CARDAMYST launch growth, expanding commercial coverage to two‑thirds, implementing cost cuts to trim operating expenses ~30% |
| MITQ | Q1 2027 · 2026-11-13 | vague | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | MITQ Q1 revenue up 9.2% to $6.1M on accelerated projects and DCS sales; net income $181K; gross margin compressed to 24.1%; Q2 guidance ~$5.4M; no Q&A questions |
| OPHC | Q3 2026 · 2026-11-13 | vague | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | OptimumBank reports record Q3 net income of $7.2M (+66% YoY), assets near $1.6B, NIM 4.63%, core ROAE 29.6%; CEO targets $500-600M annual loan growth, ~$50M equ |
| OWLT | Q3 2026 · 2026-11-13 | withdrawn | 0.10 | 0.60 | 0.20 | Owlet Q3 2026: revenue $30.4M, gross margin 53.8%, operating income $1.2M, adj. EBITDA $3.5M record, 142K Owlet360 subscribers. Cable Guard safety update trigge |
| PAVM | Q3 2026 · 2026-11-13 | vague | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | PAVmed reports Medicare reimbursement for Lucid's EsoGuard driving record test volume; Veris enrollment doubles at Ohio State; PortIO and Octeris advance toward |
| PWCM | Q3 2026 · 2026-11-13 | vague | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | PWCM mined 36% more Bitcoin YoY in Q3 2026, achieved 50.7% mining margin, paid cash for 600 S21++ miners adding ~10% hash rate by mid-Dec, cut secured debt 94% |
Flow: insiders, Street, squeeze & Congress
Congressional trade disclosures
Options desk & hedge
Income plays · Directional convexity · $100K beta-1 portfolio hedge
Income plays (CSP ledger · covered calls). POP is the historical hit rate of the same strike distance and tenor.
| Archetype | Contract | DTE | Spot | Cushion | Ann. yield | POP | FUND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSP · best quality | MU 2026-11-20 750p | 8 | $794.12 | 5.6% | 105.8% | 79% | 100 |
| CSP · highest APY | SMMT 2026-11-20 14p | 8 | $15.26 | 8.2% | 342.2% | 80% | 3 |
| CSP · safest cushion | SNDK 2026-11-20 790p | 8 | $930.66 | 15.1% | 64.1% | 92% | 88 |
| Covered call | SNDK 2026-11-20 1000c | 8 | $930.66 | 7.5% | 132.4% | 58% | 88 |
Directional convexity (bull spreads · long calls)
| Structure | Contract | DTE | Economics | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull put spread | GEV 2027-06-17 580/640p | 216 | cushion 19.7% · max return 29.8% · APY 50% | 100% hit over 512 windows |
| Long call | LQD 2027-01-15 102c | 64 | debit $195 · break-even move +0.8% | break-even / implied move 0.31 |
$100K beta-1 portfolio hedge (long puts). VIX 19.30 is under the 22 gate: puts are priced for buying.
SD50 month-to-date
Holding month November 2026, Nov 01 - Nov 13 (MTD).
Holding month November 2026, Nov 01 - Nov 13 (MTD). Live tracker.
| Book | MTD | SPY MTD | Alpha | Winners | Positions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD50 | +0.9% | -0.2% | +1.0pp | 35/60 | 60 |
| SD14 | +1.4% | -0.2% | +1.6pp | 10/14 | 14 |
Data as of the Nov 13, 2026 close. Method: methodology · track record · screener.
This brief is independent quantitative research, not investment advice. Signals, backtests and option ledgers are model outputs; past results do not guarantee future returns. Options carry risk of total loss. Position sizing, execution and risk management remain the reader's responsibility.
Today's desk
This note is a snapshot. The stock page and screener carry tonight's re-score, regime and backtest.