Daily Market Brief, Nov 10: RECOVERY day 3, VIX 19.92, breadth 43% bullish
2026-11-09 · By Pierre Brunelle · Founder & Research Lead · All notes
Regime & desk call
HMM regime: RECOVERY, day 3 (flipped from BEAR on 2026-11-05). Gross leverage scalar 3.00×, risk-on yes.
| Read | Value |
|---|---|
| State probabilities | BULL 0.1% · BEAR 14.8% · CRISIS 0.0% · RECOVERY 85.2% |
| Risk-off probability (danger) | 14.8% |
| Drawdown-model probability | 66.3% |
| Circuit breakers | REDUCED (1 active), context only |
| Breadth, % of universe bullish | 43% (6,489 of 15,198) |
| Signal flips today | 378 BUY / 125 SELL |
| Breadth velocity 5d / 10d | -3.62% / -5.50% |
| Breadth acceleration 5d | -1.74% |
| Breadth squeeze · stoch K | 1.055 · 32.3 |
| Breadth timing position | LONG (EMA bullish crossover (5d EMA > 20d EMA)) |
| Hedge desk | BUY_PUTS · VIX 19.92 (cheap) |
Desk synthesis. The HMM model is in RECOVERY on day 3, having flipped from BEAR on 2026-11-05, supporting a gross leverage scalar of 3.00× while the risk‑off probability sits at 14.8%. Breadth is 43% (6,489 of 15,198) with a bearish velocity, rates show the 2Y at 4.51% (+5 bp), the 10Y at 4.86% (+2 bp) and a 2s10s spread of +35 bp, the VIX term structure remains in contango with VIX9D/VIX at 0.998 (87th percentile) and VIX/VIX3M at 0.955 (86th percentile) as VIX trades at 19.92, and sector rotation highlights Industrials up 3.92% and Technology up 3.08% leading while Financial Services up 1.46% and Energy up 0.39% lag. The next session will pivot on the Core Inflation Rate MoM (Oct) release at 08:30, forecast at 0.20% against a prior 0.30%.
Snapshot, corridors & sectors
Cross-asset pairs · VIX term structure · Index corridors · Sector rotation
| Asset | Last | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,549.94 | +2.35% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 25,253.14 | +2.74% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,840.81 | +3.15% |
| Dow | 52,389.75 | +2.15% |
| VIX | 19.92 | -22.31% |
| Gold | 4,128.00 | +0.33% |
| WTI crude | 85.49 | -1.03% |
| Brent crude | 91.24 | -1.44% |
| Bitcoin | 74,644.94 | -0.81% |
| UST 2Y | 4.51% | +5 bp |
| UST 10Y | 4.86% | +2 bp |
| 2s10s spread | +35 bp |
Cross-asset pairs (60-session z-score of the log ratio, or of the price spread for Brent–WTI)
| Pair | Level | Z (60d) | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| BZ–WTI | 6.19 | -0.63 | inside band |
| GDXJ–GLD | 0.2979 | +0.01 | inside band |
| ETH/BTC | 0.0284 | -1.66 | inside band |
VIX term structure (Cboe implied-vol indices by horizon; ratios above 1.00 mean the curve is inverted)
| Horizon | Index | Level | 1D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-day | VIX1D | 17.31 | -11.42 |
| 9-day | VIX9D | 19.88 | -7.30 |
| 30-day | VIX | 19.92 | -5.72 |
| 3-month | VIX3M | 20.85 | -3.75 |
| 6-month | VIX6M | 22.22 | -2.48 |
Vol of VIX index: 98.43.
Index corridors (ATR HiLo trail and flip line)
| ETF | Close | ATR trend | Trail stop | Flip line | Stoch K | IV rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $752.69 | Short, 7d | $787.16 (+4.6%) | Resist $781.59 (+3.8%) | 17.7 | 42 |
| QQQ | $679.35 | Short, 17d | $725.48 (+6.8%) | Resist $762.84 (+12.3%) | 17.4 | 56 |
Sector rotation (S&P 500 constituents, equal-weight 1D change)
| Sector | 1D | Index weight | Names |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | +3.92% | 7.4% | 74 |
| Technology | +3.08% | 39.3% | 89 |
| Basic Materials | +2.59% | 1.8% | 23 |
| Consumer Discretionary | +2.26% | 13.7% | 81 |
| Healthcare | +2.04% | 9.9% | 59 |
| Communication Services | +1.74% | 8.3% | 19 |
| Utilities | +1.68% | 2.0% | 31 |
| Real Estate | +1.62% | 1.8% | 30 |
| Financial Services | +1.46% | 11.9% | 71 |
| Energy | +0.39% | 3.8% | 22 |
Leaders: Industrials, Technology. Laggards: Financial Services, Energy.
Calendar, policy & wire
US macro · Market wire · Prediction markets
US macro, Tue Nov 10
| Time ET | Impact | Release | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:00 | Medium | Fed Waller Speech | – | – |
| 08:30 | High | Core Inflation Rate MoM (Oct) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| 08:30 | High | Inflation Rate YoY (Oct) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| 08:30 | High | Inflation Rate MoM (Oct) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| 08:30 | High | Core Inflation Rate YoY (Oct) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| 08:30 | High | Inflation Rate (Oct) | 337.02 | 336.94 |
| 08:30 | High | CPI s.a (Oct) | 337.00 | 336.30 |
| 09:35 | Medium | Fed Logan Speech | – | – |
| 13:30 | Medium | Fed Bowman Speech | – | – |
| 13:30 | Medium | Fed Schmid Speech | – | – |
| 16:30 | Medium | API Crude Oil Stock Change (Nov/06) | – | -5.27 |
Market wire
- Faltering Philippine Growth Spurs Calls for State Action, Pause in Rate Hikes · Bloomberg, 8h ago
- Investors pile into defensive stocks amid fears AI bull market may be over · Financial Times, 2h ago
- French ILO Unemployment Rate Actual 8.2% (Forecast -, Previous 8.3%) · FinancialJuice, 33m ago
- SoftBank swings to $7 billion net loss in second quarter as tech selloff weighs on results · CNBC, 11m ago
- Stocks Stage A Broad-Based Relief Rally · Seeking Alpha, 12h ago
Tape check: The wire’s negative themes – faltering Philippine growth, a defensive‑stock tilt amid AI‑bull‑market worries, and SoftBank’s $7 billion loss – are being absorbed, as the S&P 500 rose +2.35% and the Nasdaq +2.74% while VIX fell ‑22.31%, keeping risk‑on momentum alive. This aligns with the “Stocks Stage A Broad‑Based Relief Rally” headline, which is confirmed by the broad market gains and sector strength in Industrials +3.92% and Technology +3.08%.
Prediction markets (Kalshi / Polymarket; Fed odds)
| Market | Venue | Yes | 24h Δ | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in November? | polymarket | 97% | +47 pts | $2,245,323 |
| Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in December 2026? | kalshi | 54% | -26 pts | $5,024 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | polymarket | 100% | +5 pts | $9,907,027 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | polymarket | 98% | -0 pts | $9,549,052 |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | polymarket | 0% | -0 pts | $5,331,591 |
Flow: insiders, Street, squeeze & Congress
Congressional trade disclosures
Options desk & hedge
Income plays · Directional convexity · $100K beta-1 portfolio hedge
Income plays (CSP ledger · covered calls). POP is the historical hit rate of the same strike distance and tenor.
| Archetype | Contract | DTE | Spot | Cushion | Ann. yield | POP | FUND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSP · best quality | MU 2026-11-20 690p | 11 | $731.92 | 5.7% | 103.2% | 77% | 100 |
| CSP · highest APY | ASTS 2026-11-20 35p | 11 | $36.97 | 5.3% | 229.4% | 69% | 7 |
| CSP · safest cushion | CRWV 2026-11-20 40p | 11 | $49.43 | 19.1% | 149.3% | 88% | 9 |
| Covered call | SNDK 2026-11-20 1000c | 11 | $886.62 | 12.8% | 98.4% | 63% | 88 |
Directional convexity (bull spreads · long calls)
| Structure | Contract | DTE | Economics | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull put spread | GEV 2027-06-17 600/680p | 220 | cushion 18.1% · max return 31.1% · APY 52% | 100% hit over 505 windows |
| Long call | TLRY 2027-01-15 3c | 67 | debit $32 · break-even move +15.1% | break-even / implied move 0.14 |
$100K beta-1 portfolio hedge (long puts). VIX 19.92 is under the 22 gate: puts are priced for buying.
SD50 month-to-date
Holding month November 2026, Nov 01 - Nov 09 (MTD).
Holding month November 2026, Nov 01 - Nov 09 (MTD). Live tracker.
| Book | MTD | SPY MTD | Alpha | Winners | Positions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD50 | +0.8% | -0.4% | +1.2pp | 33/60 | 60 |
| SD14 | +1.5% | -0.4% | +1.9pp | 9/14 | 14 |
Data as of the Nov 09, 2026 close. Method: methodology · track record · screener.
This brief is independent quantitative research, not investment advice. Signals, backtests and option ledgers are model outputs; past results do not guarantee future returns. Options carry risk of total loss. Position sizing, execution and risk management remain the reader's responsibility.
Today's desk
This note is a snapshot. The stock page and screener carry tonight's re-score, regime and backtest.