Daily Market Brief, Nov 09: BEAR day 2, VIX 25.64, breadth 41% bullish
2026-11-06 · By Pierre Brunelle · Founder & Research Lead · All notes
Regime & desk call
HMM regime: BEAR, day 2 (flipped from RECOVERY on 2026-11-05). Gross leverage scalar 1.00×, risk-on no.
| Read | Value |
|---|---|
| State probabilities | BULL 4.6% · BEAR 75.1% · CRISIS 0.0% · RECOVERY 20.3% |
| Risk-off probability (danger) | 75.1% |
| Drawdown-model probability | 8.5% |
| Circuit breakers | CLEAR (0 active) |
| Breadth, % of universe bullish | 41% (6,245 of 15,195) |
| Signal flips today | 203 BUY / 398 SELL |
| Breadth velocity 5d / 10d | -1.99% / +5.45% |
| Breadth acceleration 5d | -9.43% |
| Breadth squeeze · stoch K | 1.529 · 64.2 |
| Breadth timing position | LONG (EMA bullish crossover (5d EMA > 20d EMA)) |
| Hedge desk | TAKE_PROFIT · VIX 25.64 |
Desk synthesis. The model remains in a BEAR regime (day 2 of the flip from RECOVERY) with a gross leverage scalar of 1.00× and a risk‑off probability of 75.1%. Breadth is modest at 41% bullish (6,245 of 15,195 names) with a negative 5‑day velocity, Treasury yields have slipped to 4.46% on the 2‑year and 4.84% on the 10‑year (down 12 bp and 6 bp respectively) widening the 2s10s spread to +38 bp, the VIX curve is inverted for a second session as VIX9D/VIX sits at 1.060 and VIX/VIX3M at 1.042, and sector flow shows Technology (+1.36%) and Communication Services (+0.53%) leading while Financial Services (‑0.60%) and Real Estate (‑0.64%) lag. A Fed Bowman speech at 08:40 ET tomorrow is the single catalyst that could flip the call for the next session.
Snapshot, corridors & sectors
Cross-asset pairs · VIX term structure · Index corridors · Sector rotation
| Asset | Last | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,376.86 | +0.31% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 24,579.42 | +1.09% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,754.11 | +0.89% |
| Dow | 51,285.73 | -0.46% |
| VIX | 25.64 | -9.01% |
| Gold | 4,079.60 | -0.82% |
| WTI crude | 90.83 | +0.34% |
| Brent crude | 98.32 | +0.03% |
| Bitcoin | 75,946.03 | +0.27% |
| UST 2Y | 4.46% | -12 bp |
| UST 10Y | 4.84% | -6 bp |
| 2s10s spread | +38 bp |
Cross-asset pairs (60-session z-score of the log ratio, or of the price spread for Brent–WTI)
| Pair | Level | Z (60d) | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| BZ–WTI | 7.49 | -0.23 | inside band |
| GDXJ–GLD | 0.2892 | -0.53 | inside band |
| ETH/BTC | 0.0296 | -0.86 | inside band |
VIX term structure (Cboe implied-vol indices by horizon; ratios above 1.00 mean the curve is inverted)
| Horizon | Index | Level | 1D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-day | VIX1D | 28.73 | -8.07 |
| 9-day | VIX9D | 27.18 | -5.48 |
| 30-day | VIX | 25.64 | -2.54 |
| 3-month | VIX3M | 24.60 | -0.95 |
| 6-month | VIX6M | 24.70 | -0.59 |
| Curve read | Value | 1Y percentile | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX9D / VIX | 1.060 | 96 | inverted, 2 sessions running |
| VIX / VIX3M | 1.042 | 98 | inverted, 2 sessions running |
Vol of VIX index: 121.94.
Index corridors (ATR HiLo trail and flip line)
| ETF | Close | ATR trend | Trail stop | Flip line | Stoch K | IV rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $735.29 | Short, 6d | $787.13 (+7.0%) | Resist $781.61 (+6.3%) | 23.9 | 82 |
| QQQ | $656.10 | Short, 16d | $725.45 (+10.6%) | Resist $762.85 (+16.3%) | 12.3 | 78 |
Sector rotation (S&P 500 constituents, equal-weight 1D change)
| Sector | 1D | Index weight | Names |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +1.36% | 39.3% | 89 |
| Communication Services | +0.53% | 8.3% | 19 |
| Industrials | +0.22% | 7.4% | 74 |
| Energy | -0.04% | 3.8% | 22 |
| Healthcare | -0.05% | 9.9% | 59 |
| Consumer Discretionary | -0.19% | 13.7% | 81 |
| Basic Materials | -0.19% | 1.8% | 23 |
| Utilities | -0.29% | 2.0% | 31 |
| Financial Services | -0.60% | 11.9% | 71 |
| Real Estate | -0.64% | 1.8% | 30 |
Leaders: Technology, Communication Services. Laggards: Financial Services, Real Estate.
Calendar, policy & wire
US macro · Last session's high-impact prints · Market wire · Prediction markets
US macro, Mon Nov 09
| Time ET | Impact | Release | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:40 | Medium | Fed Bowman Speech | – | – |
| 10:00 | Medium | Fed Goolsbee Speech | – | – |
| 12:15 | Medium | Fed Barkin Speech | – | – |
Last session's high-impact prints, Nov 06
| Release | Actual | Consensus | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| U-6 Unemployment Rate (Oct) | 7.90 | 7.60 | +0.30 |
| Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Oct) | 159.00 | 64.00 | +95.00 |
| Non Farm Payrolls (Oct) | 165.00 | 65.00 | +100.00 |
| Unemployment Rate (Oct) | 4.10 | 4.20 | -0.10 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) | 51.00 | 48.00 | +3.00 |
Market wire
- Data from New Zealand electoral commission shows ruling National-led coalition likely to return to power with 10.9% of votes counted · FinancialJuice, 20m ago
- FIGS Beats Earnings as Demand Outstrips Supply, CEO Trina Spear Says · Bloomberg, 7h ago
- Cramer's week ahead: AI data center stocks face another hurdle and so does the Fed · CNBC, 12h ago
- Klingelhofer: More Rate Hikes Ahead, Fed Counter-Stimulus to U.S. Economy · YouTube, 14h ago
- Tech Stocks Rebound But Nasdaq Is Still In Correction Territory · Seeking Alpha, 11h ago
Tape check: The wire’s dominant theme of fresh macro headwinds – “More rate hikes ahead” and a Fed‑counter‑stimulus warning – is being absorbed, as the S&P 500 still posts a +0.31% gain, the Nasdaq climbs +1.09%, and the technology sector leads with a +1.36% rise while VIX falls 9.01%; likewise, Cramer’s caution on AI data‑center stocks is contradicted by the same tech‑sector rally. By contrast, FIGS’ earnings beat – a positive earnings theme – meets distribution, since the healthcare sector is down –0.05% despite the upbeat news.
Prediction markets (Kalshi / Polymarket; Fed odds)
| Market | Venue | Yes | 24h Δ | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in November? | polymarket | 97% | +47 pts | $2,245,323 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | polymarket | 100% | +5 pts | $9,907,027 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | polymarket | 98% | +0 pts | $9,524,338 |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | polymarket | 0% | -0 pts | $5,331,587 |
CallCard post-earnings drift read (tone scored from the call transcript; divergence = management tone minus Q&A pressure)
| Ticker | Call | Guidance | Mgmt | Q&A pressure | Divergence | One-liner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTT | Q3 2026 · 2026-11-06 | maintained | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.20 | INTT Q3 2026: record orders $49.4M (+31% YoY), backlog $59.7M (60% ships 2027), revenue $35.1M (+34% YoY), GM 47.7%; Q4 guide $34-36M rev, ~45% GM; semi back-en |
| KOP | Q3 2026 · 2026-11-06 | vague | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Koppers Q3 2026: Sales up 3% to $499M, adj EBITDA down 18% to $58M on rising input costs; record YTD cash flow |
| MLCIL | Q3 2026 · 2026-11-06 | vague | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | MLCI completed three strategic transactions (Yieldstreet, ACIF/BCPL, pending AFA), launched Ability direct origination, expects $6.5M annualized FRE step-up fro |
| MMI | Q3 2026 · 2026-11-06 | vague | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | MMI Q3 revenue up 7.5% to $208M, adj EBITDA $8.2M; rate volatility pressures near-term but loan maturities and seller realism signal 2027-28 pickup; six growth |
| PAA | Q3 2026 · 2026-11-06 | vague | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | PAA reports strong Q3 EBITDA of $711M, narrows 2026 guidance to $2.88B midpoint, closes Canadian NGL sale, captures $50M Cactus III synergies, announces 270k-ac |
| PPL | Q3 2026 · 2026-11-06 | vague | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | PPL raises EPS growth target to 7-9% through 2030, announces $25B capital plan, Invitium Energy LOI with QTS for 2GW PA generation, strong data center pipelines |
Flow: insiders, Street, squeeze & Congress
Congressional trade disclosures
Options desk & hedge
Income plays · Directional convexity · $100K beta-1 portfolio hedge
Income plays (CSP ledger · covered calls). POP is the historical hit rate of the same strike distance and tenor.
| Archetype | Contract | DTE | Spot | Cushion | Ann. yield | POP | FUND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSP · best quality | MU 2026-11-13 650p | 7 | $695.54 | 6.5% | 156.4% | 84% | 100 |
| CSP · highest APY | TTD 2026-11-13 12.5p | 7 | $12.88 | 3.0% | 333.7% | 70% | 73 |
| CSP · safest cushion | CRWV 2026-11-13 35p | 7 | $46.42 | 24.6% | 149.0% | 97% | 9 |
| Covered call | SNDK 2026-11-13 950c | 7 | $826.96 | 14.9% | 95.8% | 77% | 88 |
Directional convexity (bull spreads · long calls)
| Structure | Contract | DTE | Economics | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull put spread | GEV 2027-04-16 560/620p | 161 | cushion 19.2% · max return 28.7% · APY 65% | 99% hit over 545 windows |
| Long call | BIDU 2026-12-18 80c | 42 | debit $650 · break-even move +6.0% | break-even / implied move 0.14 |
$100K beta-1 portfolio hedge (long puts). VIX 25.64 is above the 22 gate: protection is expensive, size down or use spreads.
| ETF | Put | DTE | OTM | Contracts × debit = cost | Payoff at expiry if index falls | Debit / implied move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 2026-11-27 680p | 21 | 7.8% | 1 × $278 = $278 (0.28%), covers $73,791 | −5%: $0 · −10%: $1,588 · −20%: $8,967 | 0.103 |
| QQQ | 2026-11-27 610p | 21 | 7.5% | 2 × $569 = $1,138 (1.14%), covers $131,842 | −5%: $0 · −10%: $3,342 · −20%: $16,526 | 0.154 |
SD50 month-to-date
Holding month November 2026, Nov 01 - Nov 06 (MTD).
Holding month November 2026, Nov 01 - Nov 06 (MTD). Live tracker.
| Book | MTD | SPY MTD | Alpha | Winners | Positions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD50 | -1.2% | -2.7% | +1.5pp | 27/60 | 60 |
| SD14 | -0.6% | -2.7% | +2.1pp | 6/14 | 14 |
Data as of the Nov 06, 2026 close. Method: methodology · track record · screener.
This brief is independent quantitative research, not investment advice. Signals, backtests and option ledgers are model outputs; past results do not guarantee future returns. Options carry risk of total loss. Position sizing, execution and risk management remain the reader's responsibility.
Today's desk
This note is a snapshot. The stock page and screener carry tonight's re-score, regime and backtest.