Daily Market Brief, Oct 30: BULL day 2, VIX 17.20, breadth 44% bullish
2026-10-29 · By Pierre Brunelle · Founder & Research Lead · All notes
Regime & desk call
HMM regime: BULL, day 2 (flipped from BEAR on 2026-10-28). Gross leverage scalar 3.00×, risk-on yes.
| Read | Value |
|---|---|
| State probabilities | BULL 68.0% · BEAR 31.8% · CRISIS 0.0% · RECOVERY 0.1% |
| Risk-off probability (danger) | 31.8% |
| Drawdown-model probability | 27.2% |
| Circuit breakers | CLEAR (0 active) |
| Breadth, % of universe bullish | 44% (6,643 of 15,173) |
| Signal flips today | 423 BUY / 146 SELL |
| Breadth velocity 5d / 10d | +5.48% / +16.12% |
| Breadth acceleration 5d | -5.16% |
| Breadth squeeze · stoch K | 0.912 · 100.0 |
| Breadth timing position | LONG (EMA bullish crossover (5d EMA > 20d EMA)) |
| Hedge desk | BUY_PUTS · VIX 17.20 (cheap) |
Desk synthesis. The model remains in a BULL regime on day 2, supporting up to 3.00× gross leverage while the risk‑off probability sits at 31.8%. Breadth is bullish at 44% of the universe, rates are anchored by a 2‑year yield of 4.67% and a 10‑year of 5.05% with a 2s10s spread of +38 bp, the VIX term structure is in contango with the front month at 17.20 and ratios below 1.0, and sector rotation favors Healthcare (+2.68%) and Real Estate (+2.27%) while Technology (‑0.79%) and Communication Services (‑8.23%) lag. A decisive move in the next session will hinge on the Employment Cost Index QoQ print at 08:30 ET, where a surprise deviation could flip the risk‑on bias.
Snapshot, corridors & sectors
| Asset | Last | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,720.39 | -0.30% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 26,184.72 | -1.38% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,859.22 | +1.01% |
| Dow | 52,342.56 | -0.25% |
| VIX | 17.20 | +1.71% |
| Gold | 3,997.00 | -0.85% |
| WTI crude | 102.85 | +0.83% |
| Brent crude | 111.88 | +0.97% |
| Bitcoin | 78,374.77 | +0.75% |
| UST 2Y | 4.67% | -3 bp |
| UST 10Y | 5.05% | +6 bp |
| 2s10s spread | +38 bp |
Cross-asset pairs (60-session z-score of the log ratio, or of the price spread for Brent–WTI)
| Pair | Level | Z (60d) | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| BZ–WTI | 8.80 | +0.22 | inside band |
| GDXJ–GLD | 0.2739 | -1.91 | inside band |
| ETH/BTC | 0.0287 | -1.96 | inside band |
VIX term structure (Cboe implied-vol indices by horizon; ratios above 1.00 mean the curve is inverted)
| Horizon | Index | Level | 1D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-day | VIX1D | 13.62 | +0.47 |
| 9-day | VIX9D | 15.87 | +0.27 |
| 30-day | VIX | 17.20 | +0.29 |
| 3-month | VIX3M | 19.37 | +0.15 |
| 6-month | VIX6M | 21.24 | +0.00 |
Vol of VIX index: 98.01.
Index corridors (ATR HiLo trail and flip line)
| ETF | Close | ATR trend | Trail stop | Flip line | Stoch K | IV rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.36 | Long, 62d | $758.82 (-1.4%) | Support $749.59 (-2.6%) | 72.2 | 12 |
| QQQ | $715.34 | Short, 10d | $755.90 (+5.7%) | Support $700.03 (-2.1%) | 63.5 | 61 |
Sector rotation (S&P 500 constituents, equal-weight 1D change)
| Sector | 1D | Index weight | Names |
|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | +2.68% | 9.2% | 59 |
| Real Estate | +2.27% | 1.7% | 30 |
| Utilities | +1.56% | 1.9% | 31 |
| Financial Services | +1.49% | 11.2% | 70 |
| Industrials | +1.17% | 7.4% | 74 |
| Basic Materials | +0.83% | 1.7% | 23 |
| Energy | +0.42% | 3.4% | 22 |
| Consumer Discretionary | +0.24% | 12.9% | 81 |
| Technology | -0.79% | 40.5% | 88 |
| Communication Services | -8.23% | 9.8% | 21 |
Leaders: Healthcare, Real Estate. Laggards: Technology, Communication Services.
Calendar, policy & wire
US macro, Fri Oct 30
| Time ET | Impact | Release | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | Medium | Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ (Q3) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| 08:30 | Medium | Employment Cost Index QoQ (Q3) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| 08:30 | Medium | Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Q3) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| 09:45 | Medium | Chicago PMI (Oct) | 56.10 | 58.80 |
| 12:30 | Medium | Fed Musalem Speech | – | – |
| 15:30 | Medium | CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions | – | 89.30 |
| 15:30 | Medium | CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions | – | 50.70 |
| 15:30 | Medium | CFTC Gold Speculative net positions | – | 199.90 |
| 15:30 | Medium | CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions | – | -142.70 |
Last session's high-impact prints, Oct 29
| Release | Actual | Consensus | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE Price Index MoM (Sep) | 0.30 | 0.30 | +0.00 |
| Personal Spending MoM (Sep) | 0.50 | 0.60 | -0.10 |
| Core PCE Price Index YoY (Sep) | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
| Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/24) | 194.00 | 199.00 | -5.00 |
| Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct/17) | 1,701.00 | 1,720.00 | -19.00 |
| Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Oct/24) | 196.75 | 197.00 | -0.25 |
| Personal Income MoM (Sep) | 0.20 | 0.30 | -0.10 |
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3) | 3.40 | 3.20 | +0.20 |
Market wire
- BoJ's Governor Ueda: Underlying CPI inflation at level generally consistent with 2% price stability target, expected to remain at around that level. · FinancialJuice, 9m ago
- Tech Stock Selloff Deepens on Earnings, Bonds Rise: Markets Wrap · Bloomberg, 8h ago
- Global tech rout deepens as US earnings stoke AI spending fears · Financial Times, 9m ago
- Nasdaq closes 1.38% lower on AI spending and inflation concerns · Invezz, 14h ago
- Nasdaq-100 futures fall as Amazon and Intel swoon after earnings: Live updates · CNBC, 9m ago
Tape check: The wire’s tech‑earnings/AI‑spending concern theme is echoed on the tape, with the Nasdaq Composite down ‑1.38% and the Technology sector losing ‑0.79% (Communication Services even off ‑8.23%). The price drops match the negative news, so there is no absorption signal—prices are simply falling in line with the bad‑news narrative.
Prediction markets (Kalshi / Polymarket; Fed odds)
| Market | Venue | Yes | 24h Δ | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | polymarket | 100% | +5 pts | $9,907,027 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | polymarket | 97% | +0 pts | $9,292,485 |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | polymarket | 0% | -0 pts | $5,324,529 |
Flow: insiders, Street, squeeze & Congress
Congressional trade disclosures, last 30 days (597 disclosed trades; Congress tracker)
| Bought | Trades · $ mid | Sold | Trades · $ mid |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 6 · $48,003 | HD | 10 · $202,505 |
| VZ | 4 · $56,502 | DVN | 7 · $697,504 |
| TSM | 4 · $32,002 | INTU | 6 · $48,003 |
| EQT | 4 · $32,002 | SAP | 6 · $48,003 |
| MSFT | 3 · $24,002 | CL | 5 · $40,002 |
Options desk & hedge
Income plays (CSP ledger · covered calls). POP is the historical hit rate of the same strike distance and tenor.
| Archetype | Contract | DTE | Spot | Cushion | Ann. yield | POP | FUND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSP · best quality | SNDK 2026-11-20 1300p | 22 | $1,329.53 | 2.2% | 102.9% | 76% | 90 |
| CSP · highest APY | SHOP 2026-11-06 165p | 8 | $166.78 | 1.1% | 272.4% | 62% | 49 |
| CSP · safest cushion | VRT 2026-11-20 220p | 22 | $245.92 | 10.5% | 27.1% | 89% | 58 |
| Covered call | SNDK 2026-11-06 1400c | 8 | $1,329.53 | 5.3% | 145.8% | 52% | 90 |
Directional convexity (bull spreads · long calls)
| Structure | Contract | DTE | Economics | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull put spread | GEV 2027-04-16 660/740p | 169 | cushion 16.4% · max return 28.2% · APY 61% | 99% hit over 533 windows |
| Long call | HYG 2026-12-18 76c | 50 | debit $156 · break-even move +0.1% | break-even / implied move 0.07 |
$100K beta-1 portfolio hedge (long puts). VIX 17.20 is under the 22 gate: puts are priced for buying.
| ETF | Put | DTE | OTM | Contracts × debit = cost | Payoff at expiry if index falls | Debit / implied move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 2026-11-20 706p | 22 | 8.0% | 1 × $130 = $130 (0.13%), covers $76,702 | −5%: $0 · −10%: $1,569 · −20%: $9,239 | 0.062 |
| QQQ | 2026-11-20 660p | 22 | 7.4% | 1 × $333 = $333 (0.33%), covers $71,236 | −5%: $0 · −10%: $1,888 · −20%: $9,011 | 0.106 |
SD50 month-to-date
Holding month October 2026, Oct 01 - Oct 29 (MTD). Live tracker.
| Book | MTD | SPY MTD | Alpha | Winners | Positions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD50 | -1.0% | +0.9% | -1.9pp | 23/52 | 52 |
| SD14 | -1.0% | +0.9% | -1.9pp | 7/14 | 14 |
| Top contributors | MTD · contribution | Laggards | MTD · contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HNGE | +20.2% · 0.65pp | LRCX | -22.6% · -0.63pp |
| AMG | +9.1% · 0.46pp | KEYS | -9.4% · -0.60pp |
| ECO | +25.7% · 0.42pp | STX | -24.1% · -0.48pp |
Data as of the Oct 29, 2026 close. Method: methodology · track record · screener.
This brief is independent quantitative research, not investment advice. Signals, backtests and option ledgers are model outputs; past results do not guarantee future returns. Options carry risk of total loss. Position sizing, execution and risk management remain the reader's responsibility.
Today's desk
The note is a snapshot. The stock page and screener carry tonight's re-score, the regime and the backtest behind the call.