Daily Market Brief, Oct 29: BULL day 1, VIX 16.91, breadth 42% bullish
2026-10-28 · By Pierre Brunelle · Founder & Research Lead · All notes
Regime & desk call
HMM regime: BULL, day 1 (flipped from BEAR on 2026-10-28). Gross leverage scalar 2.00×, risk-on yes.
| Read | Value |
|---|---|
| State probabilities | BULL 61.2% · BEAR 38.6% · CRISIS 0.0% · RECOVERY 0.2% |
| Risk-off probability (danger) | 38.6% |
| Drawdown-model probability | 69.5% |
| Circuit breakers | REDUCED (1 active) |
| Breadth, % of universe bullish | 42% (6,363 of 15,172) |
| Signal flips today | 336 BUY / 141 SELL |
| Breadth velocity 5d / 10d | +5.48% / +16.12% |
| Breadth acceleration 5d | -5.16% |
| Breadth squeeze · stoch K | 0.912 · 100.0 |
| Breadth timing position | LONG (EMA bullish crossover (5d EMA > 20d EMA)) |
| Hedge desk | BUY_PUTS · VIX 16.91 (cheap) |
Desk synthesis. The HMM regime has flipped to BULL, supporting a gross leverage scalar of 2.00× while the risk‑off probability sits at 38.6%. Breadth remains bullish at 42% of the universe, rates show the 2‑year at 4.70% (+2 bp) and the 10‑year at 4.99% (‑1 bp) with a 2s10s spread of +29 bp, the VIX term structure is in contango with VIX9D/VIX at 0.923 and VIX/VIX3M at 0.880, and sector rotation favors Communication Services (+0.80%) and Technology (+0.56%) while Real Estate (‑0.58%) and Utilities (‑0.86%) lag. The upcoming Q3 GDP growth rate QoQ release at 3.20% versus a consensus of 2.20% will be the decisive catalyst for the next session.
Snapshot, corridors & sectors
| Asset | Last | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,743.98 | +0.28% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 26,549.85 | +0.27% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,830.51 | +0.41% |
| Dow | 52,475.10 | +0.19% |
| VIX | 16.91 | -3.48% |
| Gold | 4,045.50 | -0.15% |
| WTI crude | 101.56 | -1.19% |
| Brent crude | 110.15 | -4.48% |
| Bitcoin | 79,823.89 | -1.77% |
| UST 2Y | 4.70% | +2 bp |
| UST 10Y | 4.99% | -1 bp |
| 2s10s spread | +29 bp |
Cross-asset pairs (60-session z-score of the log ratio, or of the price spread for Brent–WTI)
| Pair | Level | Z (60d) | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| BZ–WTI | 12.54 | +1.34 | inside band |
| GDXJ–GLD | 0.2796 | -1.50 | inside band |
| ETH/BTC | 0.0289 | -1.85 | inside band |
VIX term structure (Cboe implied-vol indices by horizon; ratios above 1.00 mean the curve is inverted)
| Horizon | Index | Level | 1D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-day | VIX1D | 13.15 | +0.62 |
| 9-day | VIX9D | 15.60 | -1.05 |
| 30-day | VIX | 16.91 | -0.61 |
| 3-month | VIX3M | 19.22 | -0.35 |
| 6-month | VIX6M | 21.24 | -0.18 |
Vol of VIX index: 96.61.
Index corridors (ATR HiLo trail and flip line)
| ETF | Close | ATR trend | Trail stop | Flip line | Stoch K | IV rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $772.31 | Long, 61d | $758.79 (-1.8%) | Support $749.60 (-2.9%) | 60.7 | 27 |
| QQQ | $725.61 | Short, 9d | $755.87 (+4.2%) | Support $700.00 (-3.5%) | 54.4 | 70 |
Sector rotation (S&P 500 constituents, equal-weight 1D change)
| Sector | 1D | Index weight | Names |
|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services | +0.80% | 9.8% | 21 |
| Technology | +0.56% | 40.5% | 88 |
| Energy | +0.43% | 3.4% | 22 |
| Basic Materials | +0.42% | 1.7% | 23 |
| Industrials | +0.40% | 7.4% | 74 |
| Financial Services | +0.38% | 11.2% | 70 |
| Healthcare | +0.31% | 9.2% | 59 |
| Consumer Discretionary | -0.13% | 12.9% | 81 |
| Real Estate | -0.58% | 1.7% | 30 |
| Utilities | -0.86% | 1.9% | 31 |
Leaders: Communication Services, Technology. Laggards: Real Estate, Utilities.
Calendar, policy & wire
US macro, Thu Oct 29
| Time ET | Impact | Release | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | High | Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/24) | 199.00 | 194.00 |
| 08:30 | High | Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct/17) | 1,720.00 | 1,728.00 |
| 08:30 | High | GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| 08:30 | Medium | PCE Price Index MoM (Sep) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| 08:30 | Medium | GDP Price Index QoQ (Q3) | 3.20 | 6.10 |
| 08:30 | High | Core PCE Price Index YoY (Sep) | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| 08:30 | High | Personal Spending MoM (Sep) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| 08:30 | High | Personal Income MoM (Sep) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| 08:30 | High | Core PCE Price Index MoM (Sep) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| 08:30 | High | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Oct/24) | 197.00 | 197.75 |
| 08:30 | Medium | PCE Price Index YoY (Sep) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| 11:00 | Medium | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) | – | 3.30 |
Last session's high-impact prints, Oct 28
| Release | Actual | Consensus | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goods Trade Balance (Sep) | -134.90 | -130.00 | -4.90 |
| Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 |
Market wire
- US tech stocks set to fall after earnings fuel AI spending concerns · Financial Times, 32m ago
- ING Announces Job Cuts as Quarterly Profit Misses Estimates · Bloomberg, 50m ago
- Bank of Korea board member Hwang: time to concentrate on inflation · FinancialJuice, 2h ago
- ServiceNow’s stock slides as earnings miss overshadows a raised AI outlook · MarketWatch, 8h ago
- Microsoft stock jumps 4% as cloud growth drives earnings and revenue beat · CNBC, 1h ago
Tape check: The prevailing headline theme of tech earnings pressure and AI‑spending concerns is being absorbed, as the S&P 500 (+0.28%) and Nasdaq (+0.27%) both posted modest gains and the Technology sector rose (+0.56%). Microsoft’s earnings beat and a 42% bullish breadth across the universe further confirm that the market is holding firm rather than distributing on the mixed news.
Prediction markets (Kalshi / Polymarket; Fed odds)
| Market | Venue | Yes | 24h Δ | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | polymarket | 100% | +5 pts | $9,907,027 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | polymarket | 97% | +0 pts | $9,224,047 |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | polymarket | 0% | -0 pts | $5,324,529 |
Flow: insiders, Street, squeeze & Congress
Congressional trade disclosures, last 30 days (597 disclosed trades; Congress tracker)
| Bought | Trades · $ mid | Sold | Trades · $ mid |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 6 · $48,003 | HD | 10 · $202,505 |
| VZ | 4 · $56,502 | DVN | 7 · $697,504 |
| TSM | 4 · $32,002 | INTU | 6 · $48,003 |
| EQT | 4 · $32,002 | SAP | 6 · $48,003 |
| MSFT | 3 · $24,002 | CL | 5 · $40,002 |
Options desk & hedge
Income plays (CSP ledger · covered calls). POP is the historical hit rate of the same strike distance and tenor.
| Archetype | Contract | DTE | Spot | Cushion | Ann. yield | POP | FUND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSP · best quality | SNDK 2026-11-20 1370p | 23 | $1,396.29 | 1.9% | 102.3% | 76% | 90 |
| CSP · highest APY | SHOP 2026-11-06 165p | 9 | $167.40 | 1.4% | 234.7% | 64% | 49 |
| CSP · safest cushion | NBIS 2026-11-13 160p | 16 | $178.75 | 10.5% | 92.0% | 77% | 23 |
| Covered call | SNDK 2026-11-06 1500c | 9 | $1,396.29 | 7.4% | 117.1% | 57% | 90 |
Directional convexity (bull spreads · long calls)
| Structure | Contract | DTE | Economics | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull put spread | GEV 2027-06-17 640/720p | 232 | cushion 18.4% · max return 28.4% · APY 45% | 100% hit over 489 windows |
| Long call | IEF 2026-11-27 89.5c | 30 | debit $163 · break-even move +0.1% | break-even / implied move 0.09 |
$100K beta-1 portfolio hedge (long puts). VIX 16.91 is under the 22 gate: puts are priced for buying.
| ETF | Put | DTE | OTM | Contracts × debit = cost | Payoff at expiry if index falls | Debit / implied move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 2026-11-20 710p | 23 | 7.9% | 1 × $145 = $145 (0.14%), covers $77,122 | −5%: $0 · −10%: $1,590 · −20%: $9,302 | 0.067 |
| QQQ | 2026-11-20 670p | 23 | 7.3% | 1 × $347 = $347 (0.35%), covers $72,292 | −5%: $0 · −10%: $1,937 · −20%: $9,166 | 0.110 |
SD50 month-to-date
Holding month October 2026, Oct 01 - Oct 29 (MTD). Live tracker.
| Book | MTD | SPY MTD | Alpha | Winners | Positions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD50 | -1.0% | +1.3% | -2.2pp | 25/52 | 52 |
| SD14 | -1.1% | +1.3% | -2.3pp | 6/14 | 14 |
| Top contributors | MTD · contribution | Laggards | MTD · contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HNGE | +18.6% · 0.60pp | LRCX | -22.7% · -0.64pp |
| AMG | +7.6% · 0.38pp | KEYS | -7.8% · -0.50pp |
| ECO | +22.5% · 0.37pp | STX | -24.3% · -0.48pp |
Data as of the Oct 28, 2026 close. Method: methodology · track record · screener.
This brief is independent quantitative research, not investment advice. Signals, backtests and option ledgers are model outputs; past results do not guarantee future returns. Options carry risk of total loss. Position sizing, execution and risk management remain the reader's responsibility.
Today's desk
The note is a snapshot. The stock page and screener carry tonight's re-score, the regime and the backtest behind the call.