[RESEARCH BLOG] · 2026-10-13

Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) – Tokenization Outlook Fuels **BUY** Signal Amid Bear‑Market Regime

By Pierre Brunelle · Founder & Research Lead

Lede: Nasdaq, Inc. closed at $94.29, up 0.68 % as of 2026‑10‑12 (Monday). The LOPJLB platform now flags a BUY directional signal with a top‑tier score of 5 while the broader market sits in a BEAR regime.

Recent News Flow

Nasdaq’s chief executive, Adena T. Friedman, told CNBC that the firm’s push into asset tokenization could unlock “tens of billions of dollars” currently locked in illiquid securities, positioning the exchange as a catalyst for a new wave of capital efficiency. The interview highlighted the company’s development of a proprietary token‑issuance platform and its partnership network with custodians and regulators, suggesting a long‑term revenue tailwind from services that monetize previously dormant assets. See the full interview in Tokenization could unleash tens of billions of dollars in trapped capital, Nasdaq CEO says.

Zacks analysts noted that the ETF ecosystem stands to gain from Nasdaq’s continued market‑technology breakthroughs, emphasizing that the exchange’s data‑feed reliability and surveillance tools remain critical infrastructure for fund managers. The commentary underscored that even as passive investing matures, the demand for high‑quality execution and compliance services keeps Nasdaq’s ancillary businesses in focus. Read the analysis in ETFs to Benefit as Nasdaq's Breakthrough Still Matters.

In a September‑2026 operational update released on GlobeNewswire, Nasdaq reported record‑high trading volumes across its equity, options, and futures platforms, with a 3.2 % year‑over‑year increase in total market‑center activity. The release also detailed a $1.8 billion increase in net revenue from its Market Technology division, driven largely by growth in the Trade Surveillance SaaS offering. The full release is available at Nasdaq Reports September 2026 Volumes and 3Q26 Statistics.

Separately, GlobeNewswire announced that Nexalin Technology regained compliance with Nasdaq’s minimum bid‑price rule after a hearing panel granted its request for continued listing. The decision removed a potential delisting risk for the biotech firm and reinforced Nasdaq’s willingness to work with issuers on compliance pathways, a factor that may indirectly benefit the exchange’s reputation for market stewardship. Details can be found in Nexalin Technology Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Requirement; Nasdaq Hearings Panel Grants Request for Continued Listing.

Fundamentals and Valuation

Nasdaq, Inc. (market cap $51.58 B) trades at a trailing P/E of 26.59 and a forward P/E of 22.33, indicating that analysts expect earnings to accelerate modestly over the next twelve months. The price‑to‑book ratio of 4.34 reflects a premium valuation relative to book equity, consistent with the company’s technology‑focused asset base. An EV/EBITDA of 18.90 places Nasdaq in line with other high‑margin financial‑technology firms, while a PEG ratio of 2.34 suggests that earnings growth expectations are priced in at a moderate multiple.

Profitability remains robust. The firm posted a gross margin of 59.35 %, an operating margin of 31.58 %, and a net margin of 22.60 % for the most recent twelve‑month period, underscoring the high‑margin nature of its data‑services and surveillance businesses. Return on invested capital (ROIC) sits at 9.78 %, and return on equity (ROE) is 16.31 %, both comfortably above the industry average for exchange operators. The return on assets (ROA) of 7.20 % reflects efficient asset utilization given the capital‑light model of the business.

Cash generation has been strong. Free cash flow (FCF) grew from $1.064 B in 2020 to $1.989 B in 2025, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 15 %. Revenue expanded from $5.63 B (2020) to $8.22 B (2025), driven by a mix of higher trading volumes, increased data‑feed subscriptions, and expanding SaaS contracts. EPS, however, has been more volatile, peaking at $3.13 in 2025 after a dip to $1.94 in 2024, reflecting a one‑time accounting adjustment tied to a restructuring of equity‑based compensation.

Dividends remain modest but stable at a 1.26 % yield, with the board maintaining a consistent payout ratio that aligns with cash‑flow generation. Analyst consensus targets the stock at $110.4, representing a 17 % upside from the current price, and the prevailing recommendation is Buy. The company’s debt‑to‑equity ratio of 77.10 % signals a moderate leverage profile, comfortably serviced by operating cash flow.

Below is a snapshot of key valuation metrics:

Historical performance highlights (selected years):

• 2020: Revenue $5.63 B, EPS $1.89, net margin 16.59 %, ROE 14.50 %.
• 2021: Revenue rose 4.6 % to $5.89 B, EPS climbed to $2.38, net margin improved to 20.17 %, ROE surged to 18.56 %.
• 2022: Revenue reached $6.23 B, EPS slipped to $2.28 as the company invested heavily in surveillance technology, net margin fell to 18.07 %, ROE moderated to 18.29 %.
• 2023: Revenue dipped to $6.06 B amid a market‑wide slowdown, EPS declined to $2.10, net margin narrowed to 17.46 %, ROE dropped sharply to 9.79 % as the firm absorbed higher R&D costs.
• 2024: A rebound to $7.40 B in revenue was driven by a 12 % increase in data‑feed subscriptions, EPS fell to $1.94 due to a one‑off charge, net margin fell to 15.09 %, ROE steadied at 9.98 %.
• 2025: Revenue accelerated to $8.22 B, EPS rebounded to $3.13, net margin expanded to 21.77 %, and ROE climbed to 14.63 %, reflecting the successful monetization of the tokenization platform and higher SaaS uptake.

These trends illustrate a business that has weathered short‑term earnings volatility while steadily expanding top‑line revenue and cash generation, a pattern that aligns with the Balanced archetype identified by LOPJLB’s scoring engine.

ETF Ownership

Nasdaq’s shares are held across 42 exchange‑traded funds, with the twelve largest ETFs accounting for roughly 30 % of the float. The most concentrated positions belong to sector‑focused and thematic funds that seek exposure to financial‑technology infrastructure:

The concentration in a handful of ETFs matters because large inflows or outflows from these funds can amplify price moves, especially in a bear‑market regime where trading volumes are more sensitive to institutional positioning. However, the diversified nature of the holder base—spanning both thematic and broad‑market ETFs—provides a stabilizing effect on liquidity.

LOPJLB Signal Read

The LOPJLB engine currently assigns NDAQ a BUY directional signal with a Score of 5, the highest confidence tier in the system. This signal is generated within a BEAR market regime that has persisted for the past 25 days, indicating that Nasdaq’s relative strength is outpacing the broader market’s weakness.

Composite performance metrics place the stock at 37.00 on the PERF scale, while the FUND quality score stands at 44.76, reflecting solid fundamentals and a resilient balance sheet. The Value score of 18.00 suggests modest undervaluation relative to peers, whereas the Growth score of 50.00 and GARP score of 35.60 highlight the company’s upside potential balanced against its valuation.

Overall, Nasdaq falls into the Balanced archetype, blending growth attributes with quality and modest value characteristics. Readers can explore the full overlay of technical and quantitative signals on the interactive chart above the article, and review the detailed methodology behind the LOPJLB scoring system at the LOPJLB methodology page.

Further Research & Disclaimers

For a deeper dive into Nasdaq’s financials, recent earnings releases, and analyst commentary, visit the dedicated stock page at https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/NDAQ. If an earnings‑call transcript becomes available, it will be posted at https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/NDAQ/earnings.md. To screen for other high‑conviction opportunities, explore the LOPJLB screener.

The content presented here is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All figures are sourced from publicly available filings and LOPJLB’s proprietary data as of the article date.

This post is independent quantitative research, not investment advice. LOPJLB signals are model outputs derived from price, volume, and fundamentals. Past backtests do not guarantee future results. Position sizing, execution, and risk management remain the reader's responsibility.

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