[RESEARCH BLOG] · 2026-07-23
OppFi Inc. (OPFI) – Sell Signal Amid Recovery‑Mode Market Pulse and Deep‑Value Metrics
By Pierre Brunelle · Founder & Research Lead
OppFi Inc. closed 2026‑07‑23 at $8.86, down 4.11 % from the prior session, triggering a SELL directional signal from LOPJLB’s proprietary model as the stock sits in a recovery‑phase market regime.
News / Catalysts
- Best Value Stocks to Buy for July 6th – zacks.com · 2026‑07‑06
- Best Value Stocks to Buy for July 2nd – zacks.com · 2026‑07‑02
- OppFi (OPFI) Soars 6.3%: Is Further Upside Left in the Stock? – zacks.com · 2026‑06‑17
- OppFi Ruling Gives Bank‑FinTech Partnerships a Win but Not Final Clarity – pymnts.com · 2026‑06‑03
- SoFi vs. OppFi: Which Fintech Stock Should Investors Consider Buying? – zacks.com · 2026‑05‑26
- OppFi (OPFI) Forms ‘Hammer Chart Pattern’: Time for Bottom Fishing? – zacks.com · 2026‑05‑21
- OppFi: Buying The Dip And Staying Bullish – seekingalpha.com · 2026‑05‑14
- OppFi Q1 Earnings Call Highlights – marketbeat.com · 2026‑05‑14
- Wall Street Analysts Believe OppFi (OPFI) Could Rally 34.78%: Here’s is How to Trade – zacks.com · 2026‑05‑08
- Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on OppFi, Inc. (OPFI) 1Q26 – newsfilecorp.com · 2026‑05‑08
Business Overview
OppFi’s platform enables banks to originate a suite of consumer‑credit products, including the standard installment OppLoan, payroll‑secured SalaryTap, and the OppFi Card. Headquartered in Chicago, the firm leverages its technology to expand bank loan pipelines while earning fees and interest spreads. CEO Todd G. Schwartz continues to steer the company through a rapidly evolving credit‑services environment, where regulatory scrutiny and partnership dynamics remain pivotal.
Fundamentals and Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | 3.74 |
| Forward P/E | 4.57 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.71 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.60 |
| P/B | 3.14 |
| P/FCF | 1.92 |
| Gross Margin | 98.11 % |
| Operating Margin | 35.48 % |
| Net Margin | 10.86 % |
| ROIC | 64.68 % |
| ROE | 134.6 % |
| ROA | 9.18 % |
| FCF Yield | 52.0 % |
| Buyback Yield | 3.37 % |
| Debt/Equity | 397.6 |
| Interest Coverage | 7.71× |
| Analyst Target Price | $11.00 |
| Analyst Recommendation | Buy |
| Altman Z‑Score | 3.04 |
OppFi trades at a price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio of 3.74 (TTM) and a forward P/E of 4.57, positioning it among the cheapest stocks in the financial‑services sector. The EV/EBITDA multiple stands at 5.71, while EV/EBIT is 4.60, both well below industry averages, reflecting modest market valuation relative to cash‑flow generation.
Profitability is striking: gross margin of 98.11 %, operating margin of 35.48 %, and net margin of 10.86 % stem from the low‑cost, software‑driven nature of OppFi’s lending platform. The free‑cash‑flow yield of 52 % underscores robust cash generation, and a buyback yield of 3.37 % signals an ongoing capital return program.
Return metrics are equally compelling. ROIC of 64.68 % and ROE of 134.6 % far exceed sector medians, while ROA of 9.18 % reflects efficient asset utilization despite a relatively modest asset base.
The balance sheet shows a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 397.6, largely a function of convertible debt and revolving credit facilities. Interest coverage remains comfortable at 7.71×, indicating the firm can meet its debt service obligations without strain.
Revenue has risen 12.95 % YoY, driven by expanding partnerships with community banks and higher loan‑origination volume. The price‑to‑book (P/B) ratio of 3.14 and price‑to‑FCF of 1.92 further reinforce the deep‑value narrative.
Multi‑Year Performance
| Year | Revenue (M) | EPS | P/E | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | ROE | ROA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 291.0 | $5.97 | 1.70 | 84.81 % | 26.64 % | 78.04 % | 27.12 % |
| 2021 | 350.6 | $1.93 | 2.35 | 74.56 % | 16.33 % | –282.7 % | 5.09 % |
| 2022 | 452.9 | $0.51 | 4.02 | 78.99 % | –1.40 % | –1 436.8 % | 1.22 % |
| 2023 | 509.0 | –$0.06 | –83.51 | 78.89 % | 9.11 % | –9.63 % | –0.17 % |
| 2024 | 526.0 | $0.36 | 21.26 | 80.00 % | 17.97 % | 22.15 % | 1.13 % |
| 2025 | 597.1 | $0.99 | 10.53 | 95.09 % | 32.37 % | 45.02 % | 3.49 % |
The trajectory shows a shift from early‑stage volatility to emerging stability. After a loss‑making period (2022‑2023), the firm posted improving operating margins and a rebound in earnings in 2024‑2025, aligning with its Dividend Compounder archetype. The modest dividend policy is supported by strong free‑cash‑flow yields and a consistent buyback program.
LOPJLB Signal Read
The LOPJLB model flags OPFI with a SELL directional signal and a Score of –5 in a RECOVERY market regime, indicating heightened downside risk despite the broader market’s bullish tilt (HMM regime: BULL, 17‑day stretch).
- Composite PERF score: 11.40
- Fund quality score: 100.0 (perfect)
- Value / Growth / GARP scores: V = 80, G = 70, GARP = 99
- Quality score: 100
- % from high: –27.60 %
While fundamentals are strong, the model perceives the price as over‑extended relative to intrinsic value. The stock’s Dividend Compounder archetype typically thrives on stable cash flows and modest payouts; however, the current recovery‑phase regime adds volatility risk.
For a full overlay of technical signals—EMA crossovers, regime‑flip risk, momentum indicators—consult the interactive chart on the OPFI stock page. Detailed methodology is available in LOPJLB’s methodology overview.
Explore the full OPFI research suite:
- Detailed stock page: https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/OPFI
- Earnings‑call archive (if applicable): https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/OPFI/earnings.md
- Screener for similar dividend‑compounder opportunities: https://www.lopjlb.com/screener
The information provided herein is for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All readers should conduct their own due diligence and consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
This post is independent quantitative research, not investment advice. LOPJLB signals are model outputs derived from price, volume, and fundamentals. Past backtests do not guarantee future results. Position sizing, execution, and risk management remain the reader's responsibility.