[RESEARCH BLOG] · 2026-07-23
Coastal Financial Corp (CCB) – Sell Signal Amid Crisis‑Mode Market Regime
By Pierre Brunelle · Founder & Research Lead
Coastal Financial Corp (NASDAQ: CCB) closed at $71.41, down 7.92 % on 2026‑07‑23 (Thursday, US session). The LOPJLB proprietary model now flags a SELL directional signal with a ‑5 score, placing the stock in a CRISIS market‑regime bucket.
News / Catalysts
- Coastal Financial Corporation to Report Second Quarter 2026 Results and Host a Conference Call on July 30, 2026 – 2026‑07‑23 17:15:00 (GlobeNewswire)
- Coastal Financial Corporation Announces CFO Transition – 2026‑07‑22 19:52:00 (GlobeNewswire)
- Wall Street Analysts Believe Coastal Financial (CCB) Could Rally 32%: Here’s is How to Trade – 2026‑07‑14 10:56:17 (Zacks)
- Coastal Financial Corporation (CCB) Misses Q1 Earnings Estimates – 2026‑04‑29 10:20:22 (Zacks)
- A Look at Coastal Financial Corp (CCB) After 4.1% Gain -- GF Value $73.59 vs Price $86.68 – 2026‑04‑28 18:32:00 (GuruFocus)
These releases provide the primary catalysts driving recent price action and analyst sentiment.
Fundamentals and Valuation
Coastal Financial trades at a price‑to‑earnings (TTM) multiple of 21.84 and a forward P/E of 11.58, indicating that the market already prices in a significant earnings acceleration over the next twelve months. The price‑to‑book (P/B) ratio of 2.14 is modest for a regional bank, while the price‑to‑free‑cash‑flow (P/FCF) of 4.33 underscores the company’s ability to generate cash relative to its market valuation.
Enterprise‑value multiples remain attractive: EV/EBITDA sits at 15.41 and EV/EBIT at 17.00, both below the historical averages for the sector, suggesting that the firm’s operating earnings are not fully reflected in its market price. The PEG ratio of 0.21 signals that earnings growth expectations are priced in at a discount to the stock’s valuation.
Profitability metrics have compressed in recent years. Gross margin fell from 80.32 % in 2020 to 30.39 % in 2024, reflecting the shift from a high‑margin loan‑origination model to a more diversified, fee‑based revenue mix. Operating margin similarly declined from 26.99 % (2020) to 9.94 % (2024), while net margin dropped from 21.35 % to 7.84 % over the same period.
Return metrics illustrate a gradual erosion: ROE declined from 10.80 % (2020) to 9.57 % (2025), and ROA slipped from 0.86 % to 0.99 %, indicating that asset efficiency has weakened as the bank expands its balance sheet. Nonetheless, ROIC remains healthy at 9.78 %, suggesting that capital is still being deployed with reasonable returns.
Free‑cash‑flow yield is a standout at 23.08 %, well above the industry average, and the modest buyback yield of 0.14 % hints at limited share‑repurchase activity. The Altman Z‑score of 1.13 places the bank in the “grey zone” between healthy and distressed, aligning with the LOPJLB crisis‑regime classification.
The consensus analyst target of $110 represents a ~54 % upside from the current price, yet the LOPJLB model’s quality score of 82.5 (out of 100) is tempered by the crisis‑regime overlay, which emphasizes heightened downside risk.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | 21.84 |
| Forward P/E | 11.58 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.41 |
| P/B | 2.14 |
| P/FCF | 4.33 |
| PEG | 0.21 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 48.82 |
| Operating Margin (%) | 10.67 |
| Net Margin (%) | 8.21 |
| ROE (%) | 10.34 |
| ROA (%) | 0.87 |
| FCF Yield (%) | 23.08 |
Historical Performance Snapshot
From 2020 to 2025, Coastal Financial’s revenue grew from $70.9 M to $661.2 M, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 55 %, driven largely by acquisitions and organic loan growth in the Puget Sound region. Earnings per share (EPS) peaked at $3.36 in 2023 before slipping to $3.12 in 2025, reflecting margin compression. Free cash flow (FCF) surged to $249.9 M in 2024, then modestly receded to $246.1 M in 2025, still well above the prior‑year level.
The price‑to‑earnings ratio has widened dramatically, from 16.53 in 2020 to 36.84 in 2025, indicating that the market is demanding higher compensation for earnings risk. Simultaneously, the debt‑to‑equity ratio of 10.5 signals a leveraged balance sheet, a factor that could amplify stress under adverse credit conditions.
ETF Ownership
Coastal Financial is held by a single exchange‑traded fund, AIMS, which accounts for 0.93 % of the float and ranks tenth among the fund’s holdings. While the concentration is modest, the presence of a dedicated ETF holder can add a layer of liquidity and may influence short‑term price dynamics, especially during periods of heightened market stress.
| ETF Ticker | Weight % |
|---|---|
| AIMS | 0.93 |
LOPJLB Signal Read
The LOPJLB engine currently assigns SELL as the directional bias for CCB, with a ‑5 composite score that reflects both deteriorating market sentiment and the stock’s positioning within a CRISIS regime. The PERF composite sits at ‑16.70, indicating recent price weakness, while the FUND quality score of 82.5 suggests that the underlying fundamentals retain a degree of resilience.
On the style spectrum, CCB scores 33 on value, 62 on growth, 100 on GARP, and 82.5 on quality, landing it in the Growth Compounder archetype. This classification underscores the company’s blend of earnings‑growth potential and solid cash‑generation capacity, albeit tempered by the current market‑regime risk.
Readers can explore the interactive chart above for real‑time overlays, and consult the full stock detail page for a deeper dive into the methodology behind the signal. The LOPJLB methodology is explained in full at the research methodology page.
Explore further:
- Detailed stock profile: https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/CCB
- Earnings calendar and call transcripts (if available): https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/CCB/earnings.md
- Run your own screens: https://www.lopjlb.com/screener
All content is for informational research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own due diligence before making any trading decisions.
This post is independent quantitative research, not investment advice. LOPJLB signals are model outputs derived from price, volume, and fundamentals. Past backtests do not guarantee future results. Position sizing, execution, and risk management remain the reader's responsibility.