# XP earnings call intelligence

LOPJLB CallCard / temporal rollup · freemium · [stock page](https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/XP) · [Earnings tab](https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/XP?tab=earnings)

Updated: 2026-08-17T01:44:25

Quarters analyzed: 8

## Cross-quarter narrative

Across the eight earnings calls XP moved from a phase of record revenue, margin expansion and aggressive capital returns toward a more cautious outlook marked by macro‑driven volatility and pressure on retail margins. Early 2024 calls highlighted accelerating net‑new money, strong cross‑sell momentum and a clear path to 2026 targets, while cost discipline drove EBITDA margins above 30% and efficiency ratios to historic lows. By late 2024 the firm reaffirmed guidance but noted competitive pressure from incumbent banks and a flat loan book. In 2025 the fee‑based model and advisory tools were rolled out, capital ratios rose above targets and buybacks continued, yet revenue‑growth guidance began to look fragile and corporate net‑new money turned volatile. The 2025‑2026 period introduced new headwinds: macro volatility, tax‑policy uncertainty, SMB outflows and retail margin compression, prompting a vague 2026 outlook. Throughout, milestones were delivered on schedule, but several strategic initiatives remain open, and several early fears (credit‑card competition, loan‑book recycling) faded while macro‑related concerns resurfaced.

## Latest CallCard · Q1

**Guidance:** vague

**Tone:** mgmt 0 · Q&A pressure 0 · divergence 0

## Quarter one-liners

- **2026 Q1:** —
- **2025 Q4:** XP 2025: revenue BRL 19.5B (+8%), EBT BRL 5.5B (+10%), adj. net income BRL 5.2B (+15%), ROE 23.9% (+94bps), client assets BRL 2.1T (+22%); Q4 retail NNM BRL 20B offset by SMB BRL 3B outflows; fee-based 23% retail AUC; AI-augmented adviser scaling; shareholder restructuring announced.
- **2025 Q3:** XP reports record net income of BRL 1.33B (+12% YoY) and 23% ROE, driven by Corporate & Issuer Services record quarter (+32% YoY), while acknowledging 2025 revenue guidance of 10% growth likely missed and 2026 guidance at risk due to softer first half and macro volatility.
- **2025 Q2:** XP reports record net income of BRL 1.321bn (+18% YoY) and ROE expansion to 24.4%, but acknowledges 2025 more challenged than expected with volatile corporate net new money and fee-based model transition.
- **2025 Q1:** XP reports Q1 2025 record net income BRL1.236B (+20% YoY), ROE 24.1%, client assets BRL1.8T (+13% YoY), announces new BRL1B buyback, sees strong cross-sell growth in insurance, credit, consortium.
- **2024 Q4:** XP delivered record 2024 results with 15% revenue growth, 26% EBT growth, and highest quarterly net income since IPO; 2026 guidance on track, 2025 net new money target BRL20B/quarter retail, confident in fixed income and corporate growth despite macro.
- **2024 Q3:** XP delivers record Q3 net income (BRL1.2B), 124% YoY net new money (BRL31B), 28.4% ROTE, announces BRL3B extra payout, reaffirms 2026 guidance (BIS 16-19%, >50% payout, EBT margin 30-34%).
- **2024 Q2:** XP posts record Q2 revenue, EBITDA, net income; net new money re-accelerates; on track for 2026 guidance; corporate restructuring underway; capital return continues.

## Theme arcs

- **Revenue growth** (deteriorating): Early record growth gave way to missed 2025 guidance and risk to 2026 targets
- **Margin expansion** (improving): EBITDA and EBT margins rose and efficiency improved, though retail margin compression emerged later
- **Capital return** (improving): Dividends and buybacks grew, capital ratios stayed within 16‑19% target
- **Net new money stability** (stable): Retail inflows remained strong, but corporate and SMB flows became volatile
- **Fee‑based model expansion** (new): Launched in 2025, on‑track but not yet material to net new money
- **Corporate restructuring** (new): XP Bank parent structure pending regulatory approval
- **Competitive pressure** (deteriorating): Incumbent banks and credit‑card rivals intensified, market‑share pressure noted
- **Macro environment** (deteriorating): From early sensitivity to later volatility affecting corporate pipelines
- **Regulatory risk** (resolved): Early RWA reclassification mentioned, no new regulatory concerns later

## Fear persistence

- **Macro sensitivity** [recurring]: Cited in 2024 Q2 and re‑emerged as macro volatility in 2025 Q3
- **Credit card competition** [resolved]: Raised in 2024 Q2, not mentioned later
- **Tax rate increase** [recurring]: Noted in 2024 Q2 and again post‑restructuring in 2026 Q4

## Guidance path

2024 Q2:maintained → 2024 Q3:maintained → 2024 Q4:maintained → 2025 Q1:maintained → 2025 Q2:maintained → 2025 Q3:lowered → 2025 Q4:vague → 2026 Q1:vague

---

Research context only. Not personalized investment advice.

API: `GET /bff/api/bigfive/earnings-intel/XP`