# TEM earnings call intelligence

LOPJLB CallCard / temporal rollup · freemium · [stock page](https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/TEM) · [Earnings tab](https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/TEM?tab=earnings)

Updated: 2026-11-02T07:19:25

Quarters analyzed: 8

## Cross-quarter narrative

Across six quarters Tempus evolved from rapid top‑line expansion with a vague outlook to a more disciplined growth story anchored by recurring revenue and emerging profitability. Revenue surged from $180.9M in Q3 2024 to $382.5M in Q2 2026, driven by double‑digit Genomics volume gains and a 41‑44% lift in data licensing. Gross margins widened as data and services outpaced cost growth, enabling a swing from a $21.8M adjusted EBITDA loss in 2024 to positive adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2025 and $8M in Q2 2026. The Ambry Genetics acquisition was integrated and began contributing high‑teens growth, while newer deals—Paige and Personalis—expanded the MRD portfolio. However, recurring concerns around hereditary growth moderation, MRD reimbursement timing, and algorithm monetization persisted, and new risks emerged from AI‑focused competitors and reliance on large pharma collaborations. Capital actions shifted from debt refinancing to strategic note issuances and cash‑rich balance sheets, supporting AI foundation model development and regulatory pursuits (xT CDx approval, pending xF). Guidance moved from aggressive raises to maintained targets, reflecting confidence in data moat despite lingering regulatory and reimbursement uncertainties.

## Latest CallCard · Q2

Tempus AI Q2 2026: revenue up 22% to $382.5M, raised FY26 guidance to $1.595-1.605B (~25% growth), FDA approval for xT CDx, xF liquid biopsy pending, acquired Personalis for MRD, Adj EBITDA $8M, cash $820.7M. Momentum strong across diagnostics and data. Personalis deal adds MRD portfolio. Free cash 

**Guidance:** raised — FY26 revenue guidance raised to $1.595B-$1.605B (~25% growth). Adjusted EBITDA expected ~$65M, a $72M improvement over 2025. Positive free cash flow targeted by year-end.

**Tone:** mgmt 0.8 · Q&A pressure 0.4 · divergence 0.3

Management describes Q2 as 'exceptional', highlights 'momentum continues', 'exceptionally proud', and emphasizes strong growth across diagnostics, data, and new deals.

### Demand visibility

Strong demand visibility across diagnostics and data businesses, with June showing strongest growth to date, $200M in bookings, multiple large pharma deals, and MRD test volumes growing 38% QoQ.

Diagnostics revenue $289.3M (+20% YoY), CGP testing accelerating. Data & Apps revenue $93.2M (+28% YoY), Insights growing 36%. Signed multi-year data licensing deals with BioNTech, Daiichi Sankyo, LevelSet Bio, Incyte. MRD tests: ~6,500 in Q1, ~9,000 in Q2 (+38% QoQ). Algorithm attach rate 45% in Q2. Pharma clients embedding Lens and models into workflows, creating stickiness.

### Margins / costs

Adjusted EBITDA $8M in Q2, up $13.6M YoY. Cash used in operations improved to -$7.5M. Expect positive free cash flow by year-end. $460M convertible notes offering saves >$30M annual interest.

GAAP net income $5.6M. Cash equivalents $820.7M vs $643.8M prior quarter. Convertible notes used to repay Ares Capital loan, saving >$30M/year interest. Core business generating gross margin growth; variable investments (cloud, sales) can be scaled without negative EBITDA or cash flow.

### Capital allocation

Raised $460M via 0% convertible senior notes due 2032, repaid high-cost debt, saving $30M+ annual interest. Announced stock-for-stock acquisition of Personalis with option to pay up to 50% cash, intends to finance cash portion with debt to minimize dilution.

Convertible notes offering completed in Q2. Proceeds partly used to repay Ares Capital loan. Personalis acquisition structured as 100% stock transaction, Tempus can elect cash payment capped at 50% of consideration. Management plans to put debt facility in place for cash portion, depending on stock price. Even with acquisition, expects continued Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow improvement in 2027.

### Milestones

- **FDA approval for tumor-only xT CDx** [delivered]: Received FDA approval in Q2; enables unified ADLT pricing for solid tumor DNA portfolio, estimated $200 ASP uplift (~$85M annual revenue starting 2027).
- **xF liquid biopsy FDA submission** [on_track]: xF assay in front of FDA; approval expected latter half of 2027, anticipated incremental ASP lift of $550, contributing to ~$400M revenue uplift in 2028 combined with xT CDx.
- **Foundation model v1 delivery to AstraZeneca** [delivered]: First version of multimodal foundation model accepted by AstraZeneca after meeting predictive performance criteria against internal models in blinded trials.
- **Foundation model v2 development** [on_track]: Working on next version of foundation model after successful v1 delivery.
- **Multi-year data licensing deals** [delivered]: Signed large agreements with BioNTech, Daiichi Sankyo, LevelSet Bio, Incyte Pharmaceuticals; total bookings ~$200M in Q2.
- **Personalis acquisition announcement** [new]: Agreed to acquire Personalis on July 20, 2026; adds MRD testing portfolio ($20B+ market), accelerates commercial adoption, strengthens multimodal data flywheel. Stock deal with cash option up to 50%.
- **GenomeNext launch (whole genome sequencing)** [delivered]: Launched in Q2; first month sales 50% above expectations, though small absolute numbers (~500-1,000 tests).
- **Rare disease ramp within Ambry** [on_track]: Expect pickup in H2 2026; management conservative on estimates, targeting mid-teens hereditary growth by year-end.

### Fears / risks

- **Regulatory**: xF liquid biopsy FDA approval not guaranteed; timeline could slip beyond H2 2027, delaying anticipated $550 ASP uplift and $400M combined revenue uplift in 2028.
- **Integration**: Personalis acquisition integration risk: combining MRD portfolio, sales force expansion, and data flywheel execution may face challenges.
- **Reimbursement**: Most algorithms not yet reimbursed; algorithm attach rate (45%) does not directly drive revenue. Future revenue depends on securing payment for algorithms.
- **ASP assumptions**: Personalis ASP trajectory uncertain; management expects improvement as more indications gain coverage, but timing and magnitude are not guaranteed.
- **Termination risk**: If Tempus stock remains below $46, Personalis may have termination right per merger agreement; management confident but risk exists.
- **Competitive pricing**: xF ADLT pricing benchmarked against Guardant's approved assay (~$8,400); if market pricing shifts, expected ASP uplift could be lower.
- **Cannibalization**: Whole genome sequencing (GenomeNext) may eventually cannibalize whole exome business; management monitoring but only one month of data.
- **Pharma contract concentration**: Heavy reliance on large pharma data licensing deals (AstraZeneca, GSK, BMS, BioNTech, Merck); loss or non-renewal of a major contract could impact Data & Apps growth.

### Key quotes

> “Q2 was an exceptional quarter for Tempus. Overall, our revenues increased 22% to $382.5 million, with this being the first quarter where we are lapping Ambry being fully integrated into our results.” — Eric Lefkofsky

> “We received FDA approval for tumor-only xT CDx. This approval allows the migration of our entire solid tumor DNA portfolio to be under unified ADLT pricing. We expect an estimated $200 uplift in ASP, which equates to approximately $85”

> “We introduced initial results from and successfully delivered the first version of our foundation model to AstraZeneca. The model was used to predict which patients responded in several public and blinded clinical trials.”

> “On July 20th, we announced an agreement to acquire Personalis. Minimal residual disease, MRD testing represents a $20 billion+ market and is one of the fastest-growing segments in oncology diagnostics.”

> “The algorithm attach rate in Q2 is 45%, a slight uptick from the 40% that we had quoted in Q1.” — Jim Rogers

## Quarter one-liners

- **2026 Q2:** Tempus AI Q2 2026: revenue up 22% to $382.5M, raised FY26 guidance to $1.595-1.605B (~25% growth), FDA approval for xT CDx, xF liquid biopsy pending, acquired Personalis for MRD, Adj EBITDA $8M, cash $820.7M. Momentum strong across diagnostics and data. Personalis deal adds MRD portfolio. Free cash 
- **2026 Q1:** Tempus AI Q1 2026 revenue $348.1M (+36% YoY), raised full-year guidance to $1.59B-$1.6B with ~$65M adj EBITDA, strong data business momentum with new large pharma deals. Strong pipeline with third straight quarter of >$100M TCV bookings. MRD volume growing robustly with metered rollout pending reimb
- **2025 Q4:** Tempus reported strong Q4 2025 growth across diagnostics and data, highlighted a massive proprietary data moat and AI foundation model progress, maintained guidance, but noted MRD sales constraints and reimbursement timing uncertainties.
- **2025 Q3:** Tempus AI Q3 2025: Genomics +33% (Oncology +27%, Hereditary +37%), Data licensing +38% with $150M TCV bookings, first positive adj EBITDA (10-yr goal), Paige acquired mid-quarter, guiding ~25% unit growth for 3 years.
- **2025 Q2:** Tempus AI Q2 revenue +90% to $315M, raised FY25 revenue guide to $1.26B, EBITDA nearing breakeven; genomics volume surge across oncology/hereditary, data licensing +41%, AZ Pathos deal boosts bookings.','tone': {'mgmt': 0.8, 'mgmt_rationale': 'Prepared remarks emphasize "fantastic quarter," "hitting
- **2025 Q1:** Tempus Q1 revenue $255.7M (+75% YoY), raised FY25 guidance to $1.25B (+80%), announced $200M AZ/Pathos foundation model deal, EBITDA loss narrowing, Ambry hereditary growing 23%.
- **2024 Q4:** Tempus Q4 revenue +35.8%, gross profit +49.7%; raised 2025 revenue guide to $1.24B with ~$5M adj EBITDA; Ambry acquisition closed, Data TRCV $940M, 140% NRR. Genomics and Data firing on all cylinders. Ambry growth expected high teens in 2025 after 2024 accelerants. ADLT transition ~20% xT volume by 
- **2024 Q3:** Tempus Q3: rev $180.9M (+33%), Genomics units +23.9%, Data & Services +64.4%, adj EBITDA -$21.8M improving; Ambry Genetics acquisition $600M (1.9x rev, 15x EBITDA) to reach EBITDA/cash flow breakeven.','tone': {'mgmt': 0.8, 'mgmt_rationale': 'Management highlighted strong revenue growth, acceleratin

## Theme arcs

- **Revenue growth** (improving): Quarterly revenue rose >30% YoY each quarter, reaching $382.5M in Q2 2026.
- **Gross margin expansion** (improving): Gross profit growth outpaced revenue, driven by data services.
- **Adjusted EBITDA trajectory** (improving): From -$21.8M loss (2024) to positive EBITDA (Q3 2025) and $8M (Q2 2026).
- **Data licensing momentum** (improving): Licensing grew 41‑44% YoY, with multi‑year contracts adding visibility.
- **Genomics volume** (improving): Consistent double‑digit growth, though hereditary growth moderates.
- **Acquisition integration** (new): Ambry integrated, Paige added, Personalis announced, expanding MRD suite.
- **MRD reimbursement uncertainty** (deteriorating): Repeated delays and unknown timing limit volume upside.
- **Algorithm monetization risk** (deteriorating): Revenue depends on future reimbursement for AI algorithms.
- **Competitive AI pressure** (new): Traditional AI firms entering healthcare threaten data moat.
- **Capital structure optimization** (improving): Zero‑coupon notes reduced interest, cash generation increased.

## Fear persistence

- **Ambry growth deceleration** [recurring]: Raised as a concern in Q4 2024 and Q3 2025.
- **Data delivery lumpiness** [resolved]: Mentioned Q4 2024; not referenced later.
- **Smaller pharma budget sensitivity** [resolved]: Cited Q4 2024 only.

## Guidance path

2024 Q3:vague → 2024 Q4:raised → 2025 Q1:raised → 2025 Q2:vague → 2025 Q3:maintained → 2025 Q4:maintained → 2026 Q1:raised → 2026 Q2:raised

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