# PAC earnings call intelligence

LOPJLB CallCard / temporal rollup · freemium · [stock page](https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/PAC) · [Earnings tab](https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/PAC?tab=earnings)

Updated: 2026-10-19T01:50:59

Quarters analyzed: 8

## Cross-quarter narrative

Across 8 calls for PAC, management tone moved from +0.20 (2024 Q1) to +0.60 (2026 Q2). Latest guidance stance: maintained. Latest desk line: GAP posted 8.4% EBITDA growth and a 69.3% margin despite a 5.6% traffic drop, highlighting diversification and CBX integration while guiding to flat‑to‑‑3% passenger growth and 10‑12% EBITDA rise.

## Latest CallCard · Q2

GAP posted 8.4% EBITDA growth and a 69.3% margin despite a 5.6% traffic drop, highlighting diversification and CBX integration while guiding to flat‑to‑‑3% passenger growth and 10‑12% EBITDA rise.

**Guidance:** maintained — Management updated guidance to -3% to flat passenger growth and 10‑12% EBITDA growth, without explicitly raising or lowering prior outlook

**Tone:** mgmt 0.6 · Q&A pressure 0.4 · divergence 0.3

Prepared remarks stress resilience, diversification and margin expansion despite traffic decline

### Demand visibility

Traffic outlook mixed; temporary headwinds from World Cup, hurricane, security and macro factors

Recovery expected in July after World Cup, gradual hotel reopening in Jamaica, but security incidents in Puerto Vallarta and weaker domestic consumption keep visibility limited

### Margins / costs

EBITDA margin expanded to 69.3% despite higher personnel, maintenance and security costs

Operating expenses rose 3% YoY, driven by higher staff, maintenance and security, but tariff implementation and CBX contribution offset pressures

### Capital allocation

CapEx ~MXN4bn focused on airport capacity, Jamaica projects and commercial investments

Includes MXN9bn committed under Mexico Master Development Plan, MXN2bn for Jamaica airport upgrades and MXN1bn for commercial initiatives

### Milestones

- **Cross Border Xpress (CBX) integration** [on_track]: Generated MXN168m revenue in May‑June; margin improvement expected in Q4 as integration yields savings
- **Master Development Plan (MDP) investments in Mexico** [on_track]: MXN9bn committed to expand airport capacity and infrastructure under the 2025‑2029 plan
- **Jamaica airport capacity upgrades** [on_track]: Winter season seat capacity expected to fully recover by year‑end after hurricane impact
- **FIBRA GAP listing** [on_track]: Final investor meetings underway; launch anticipated in the coming weeks (Q3)
- **Guadalajara Airport World Cup operations** [delivered]: Handled extra charter flights and saw 6% traffic increase during the tournament
- **Technical assistance internalization** [new]: Reversal of fee provision contributed to stable operating costs

### Fears / risks

- **Traffic decline**: 5.6% YoY passenger drop, driven by Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica and a security incident in Puerto Vallarta
- **Fuel cost pressure**: Rising jet fuel costs pressured airfare prices and dampened demand
- **Macro‑economic slowdown**: Weak consumption and slower GDP growth in Mexico affecting passenger volumes
- **Currency impact**: 10.9% appreciation of the Mexican peso reduced aeronautical revenue translation
- **Security concerns**: Incidents and travel advisories in Puerto Vallarta curbed international leisure traffic
- **Airline competition**: Potential Viva‑Volaris merger could alter domestic market dynamics
- **Tax rate uncertainty**: FIBRA vehicle will be tax‑transparent but no expected change in GAP's effective tax rate
- **Oil price volatility**: Higher oil prices increase airline costs and may suppress passenger demand

### Key quotes

> “Passengers traffic declined by 5.6% compared with the second quarter of 2025. Revenue, excluding construction services, increased by 4.9%, EBITDA grew by 8.4%, and EBITDA margin expanded by 230 basis points to 69.3%.”

> “Non-aeronautical revenues increased by 23.9%, supported by continued growth across the business lines operated directly by GAP, as well as the consolidation of the Cross Border Xpress beginning on the first of May of this year.”

> “We are not seeing any change on that. We have seen there is still a change rate during the last months. We are expecting second half on average MXN 17.5 per USD.” — Saúl Villarreal

> “We are seeing a July that will bring some of this lack of domestic passengers that will come or will make leisure domestic passengers, mainly in Mexico.”

> “For the moment, we are not seeing that kind of concessions or discounts to the airlines for all this environment on the economics.” — Raúl Revuelta

## Quarter one-liners

- **2026 Q2:** GAP posted 8.4% EBITDA growth and a 69.3% margin despite a 5.6% traffic drop, highlighting diversification and CBX integration while guiding to flat‑to‑‑3% passenger growth and 10‑12% EBITDA rise.
- **2026 Q1:** —
- **2025 Q4:** —
- **2025 Q3:** GAP posted solid Q3 2025 revenue and EBITDA growth despite a 2.5% passenger increase offset by international traffic decline, cost pressures from new jet‑bridge operations, and ongoing VFR and immigration headwinds, while advancing new routes, terminal expansions and a pending Motiva acquisition.
- **2025 Q2:** —
- **2024 Q3:** GAP Q3 2024 call highlighted a 5.7% passenger decline due to engine inspections, a 39% jump in non‑aeronautical revenue, ongoing capex for terminals and cargo, tariff rollout to 2026 and a modest ~5% traffic growth outlook.
- **2024 Q2:** GAP Q2 2024 saw a 3.9% passenger drop and 3.3% revenue decline, offset by an 11% rise in commercial revenue, higher costs, a new VIP lounge, second runway and an upward‑revised guidance driven by the GWTC acquisition.
- **2024 Q1:** GAP Q1 saw flat passenger traffic, a 15% jump in non‑aeronautical revenue, new international routes, but faces engine‑inspection limits, tariff negotiations and guidance uncertainty.

## Theme arcs

- **Management tone** (improving): Δ mgmt=+0.40

## Fear persistence

- **operational** [recurring]: 2024 Q1, 2024 Q2
- **regulatory** [recurring]: 2024 Q1, 2024 Q2
- **cost** [recurring]: 2024 Q1, 2024 Q2
- **financial** [resolved]: 2024 Q1
- **market** [resolved]: 2024 Q1
- **competitive** [recurring]: 2024 Q1, 2024 Q2
- **guidance** [resolved]: 2024 Q1
- **currency** [recurring]: 2024 Q1, 2024 Q2
- **demand** [resolved]: 2024 Q2
- **integration** [resolved]: 2024 Q2

## Guidance path

2024 Q1:vague → 2024 Q2:raised → 2024 Q3:vague → 2025 Q2:vague → 2025 Q3:maintained → 2025 Q4:vague → 2026 Q1:vague → 2026 Q2:maintained

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Research context only. Not personalized investment advice.

API: `GET /bff/api/bigfive/earnings-intel/PAC`