# ODD earnings call intelligence LOPJLB CallCard / temporal rollup · freemium · [stock page](https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/ODD) · [Earnings tab](https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/ODD?tab=earnings) Updated: 2026-09-09T07:09:11 Quarters analyzed: 8 ## Cross-quarter narrative Across 8 calls for ODD, management tone moved from +0.00 (2024 Q2) to +0.60 (2026 Q1). Latest guidance stance: maintained. Latest desk line: ODDITY Q1 2026 earnings show a 26% revenue drop driven by a sudden CPA surge from its main ad partner, but management sees a May improvement, expects full‑year positive EBITDA and maintains its outlook despite high uncertainty. ## Latest CallCard · Q1 ODDITY Q1 2026 earnings show a 26% revenue drop driven by a sudden CPA surge from its main ad partner, but management sees a May improvement, expects full‑year positive EBITDA and maintains its outlook despite high uncertainty. **Guidance:** maintained — Management reaffirmed a full‑year positive adjusted EBITDA outlook and Q2 guidance without raising or lowering targets. **Tone:** mgmt 0.6 · Q&A pressure 0.5 · divergence 0.3 Management expressed hope of normalization in H2 and bullishness on industry dynamics, emphasizing recovery steps and new product momentum. ### Demand visibility Full‑year visibility limited due to algorithmic CPA disruption and media uncertainty. Management expects normalization in H2 but cannot quantify timing; analysts pressed on CPA trends and diversification, highlighting uncertainty. ### Margins / costs Margins compressed by higher CPA, product‑mix shift and remediation testing. Gross margin fell 520 bps to 69.7%; remediation activities and lower AOV added pressure, while acquisition cost spikes hurt unit economics. ### Capital allocation Share buybacks continued and cash remains strong while cost controls offset EBITDA pressure. Repurchased ~6 M shares for $82 M, $167 M authorization left; $667 M cash on hand; $350 M credit facility undrawn; ongoing cost management to protect growth investments. ### Milestones - **Try Before You Buy model shift** [on_track]: 40% of acquisition revenue moved to standard buy with no impact on unit economics - **METHODIQ revenue target** [on_track]: Expected to deliver $25 M revenue this year, early strong start - **Neurexa topical eczema treatment** [new]: Added to METHODIQ lineup this quarter - **Zeralaq acne scalp prevention** [new]: First‑of‑its‑kind product added to METHODIQ lineup - **Anti‑aging molecule human testing** [on_track]: In vitro efficacy shown; moving to human‑focused group testing - **Hypopigmentation pathway focus groups** [on_track]: Evaluating enhanced efficacy with ODDL1007 molecule - **Acne prevention candidate lab validation** [at_risk]: In final laboratory validation phase, timeline uncertain - **SpoiledChild CPA remediation** [on_track]: CPA increase less severe; plan to apply IL MAKIAGE fixes ### Fears / risks - **Algorithmic CPA spikes**: Sudden increase in CPA due to ad platform algorithm changes hurt acquisition efficiency - **Platform concentration risk**: Over 50% of acquisition spend relies on a single ad partner, limiting diversification - **Margin compression**: Higher CPA and product mix shift compressed gross margin by 520 bps - **Inventory buildup**: Elevated inventory due to revenue shortfall versus purchase plans - **Repeat sales decline**: First order drop reduced repeat sales proportion, impacting revenue - **Uncertainty in full‑year outlook**: Media uncertainty and algorithm issues limit visibility to FY results - **Potential continued CPA issues**: If algorithm does not fully normalize, CPA could remain elevated - **Cost of Try Before You Buy remediation**: Extensive testing to shift 40% revenue incurred margin pressure ### Key quotes > “While we continue to navigate account dislocation with our largest advertising partner, we remain hopeful that we will return to normalization in the second half of this year as we communicated in Q4 earnings.” — Oran Holtzman > “We saw a meaningful improvement in IL MAKIAGE CPA this May, which declined an estimated 28% from April, breaking a negative trend of multiple months of CPA increases with this advertising partner.” > “Net revenue declined 26%, slightly less negative than our expectation of an approximate 30% decline.” > “Try Before You Buy remains part of our model. We have no plan to eliminate it as we strongly believe it's great for consumer, and it's the closest way of bringing physical store experience to the online world.” — Oran Holtzman > “SpoiledChild, we see also increasing CPA less severe than IL MAKIAGE. The main difference SpoiledChild continues to grow.” ## Quarter one-liners - **2026 Q1:** ODDITY Q1 2026 earnings show a 26% revenue drop driven by a sudden CPA surge from its main ad partner, but management sees a May improvement, expects full‑year positive EBITDA and maintains its outlook despite high uncertainty. - **2025 Q4:** ODDITY posted record 2025 results and launched METHODIQ, but faces an unprecedented user‑acquisition cost dislocation that could hurt H1 2026 earnings. - **2025 Q3:** ODDITY posted 24% revenue growth, raised full-year guidance and officially launched its METHODIQ dermatology brand, while highlighting 40% international growth and ongoing tariff headwinds. - **2025 Q2:** ODDITY beat Q2 targets with 25% revenue growth to $241M, strong FCF, launching Brand 3 medical-grade dermatology in Q4, Brand 4 in 2026, expanding internationally toward $1B IL MAKIAGE goal. - **2025 Q1:** Oddity posted a record Q1 with 27% revenue growth, $52M adjusted EBITDA and raised its 2025 outlook, citing strong DTC demand, international expansion and upcoming brand launches. - **2024 Q4:** Oddity Tech posted 27% Q4 revenue growth, strong repeat sales and expanding margins, while pledging 2025 targets of 20% growth and EBITDA margin, and gearing up for brand‑three telehealth launch. - **2024 Q3:** ODDITY Q3 2024: revenue +26% to $119M, raises FY guidance to 26-27% growth, highlights DTC strength with repeat >50%, Brand 3/4 launching H2 2025, ODDITY LABS expanding. - **2024 Q2:** — ## Theme arcs - **Management tone** (improving): Δ mgmt=+0.60 ## Fear persistence - **gross margin normalization** [resolved]: 2024 Q3 - **ebitda margin compression** [resolved]: 2024 Q3 - **new brand revenue contribution delay** [resolved]: 2024 Q3 - **international expansion timing** [resolved]: 2024 Q3 - **dtc model durability questions** [resolved]: 2024 Q3 - **generative ai competition** [resolved]: 2024 Q3 - **execution risk on telehealth and vision tech** [resolved]: 2024 Q3 - **consumer slowdown exposure** [resolved]: 2024 Q3 - **macro consumer confidence** [resolved]: 2024 Q4 - **competitive pressure** [recurring]: 2024 Q4, 2025 Q1, 2025 Q3 ## Guidance path 2024 Q2:vague → 2024 Q3:raised → 2024 Q4:maintained → 2025 Q1:raised → 2025 Q2:raised → 2025 Q3:raised → 2025 Q4:lowered → 2026 Q1:maintained --- Research context only. Not personalized investment advice. API: `GET /bff/api/bigfive/earnings-intel/ODD`