# NEM earnings call intelligence

LOPJLB CallCard / temporal rollup · freemium · [stock page](https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/NEM) · [Earnings tab](https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/NEM?tab=earnings)

Updated: 2026-10-19T03:32:21

Quarters analyzed: 8

## Cross-quarter narrative

Across the series of Newmont earnings CallCards, the company moved from a focus on divestments and short‑term cost pressures in Q3 2024 to a broader emphasis on capital allocation, safety, and legal uncertainty by mid‑2026. Early calls highlighted labor‑driven cost inflation, production shortfalls at Lihir and Brucejack, and the execution of the Telfer/Havieron and Akyem divestments. Subsequent quarters showed a steady improvement in free‑cash‑flow generation, record dividend increases and share‑buyback programmes, while cost discipline was reinforced despite macro‑inflation and price‑linked tax impacts. Safety concerns escalated, with multiple fatalities, a Red Chris underground incident and a Tanami fatality investigation prompting heightened risk focus. Project execution remained largely on track for Ahafo North, Tanami Expansion 2 and Cadia panel caves, though Red Chris and Yanacocha faced setbacks. Debt levels hovered near the $8 billion ceiling, prompting ongoing reduction efforts. A new legal dispute with the NGM joint‑venture emerged in late‑2025 and persisted, adding operational uncertainty. Overall, the narrative shifts from immediate operational challenges to a more balanced view of financial strength, disciplined capital deployment, and emerging governance risks.

## Latest CallCard · Q2

Newmont posted a strong Q2 2026 with record free cash flow, on‑track production and cost discipline, while highlighting Red Chris regulatory progress and ongoing cost‑inflation monitoring.

**Guidance:** maintained — Full‑year guidance unchanged and described as on‑track.

**Tone:** mgmt 0.6 · Q&A pressure 0.5 · divergence 0.3

Prepared remarks emphasized a strong quarter and that the company remains on‑track to meet full‑year guidance.

### Demand visibility

Production outlook clear with 49% of full‑year output already delivered; Q3 expected in line with Q2 and Q4 projected as strongest quarter.

Assets such as Yanacocha and Lihir delivered early ounces; Lihir expected to finish maintenance in Q3; Ahafo North to reach full run rate later in the year; overall production expected to meet guidance.

### Margins / costs

Costs remain within guidance despite higher oil prices.

All‑in sustaining costs were $1,621 per ounce, below the $1,680 guidance; higher oil prices add roughly $60 million per $10/barrel change, but the impact is being monitored.

### Capital allocation

Capital spend on track, weighted to the second half, focusing on sustaining and development projects.

Sustaining capital $438 million in Q2, on track to $1.95 billion full year; development capital $285 million in Q2, on track to $1.4 billion; emphasis on Boddington, Cadia, Tanami, Red Chris and other key projects.

### Milestones

- **Red Chris Block Cave** [on_track]: Received amended Environmental Assessment Certificate and is advancing feasibility study and MOU with Canadian government.
- **Cadia (operating caves)** [on_track]: Operating caves back in production mid‑June after seismic event; panel cave development resuming later in the year.
- **Cadia PC2‑3 development** [on_track]: Further development work ongoing; cave establishment pending regulatory safety approvals.
- **Tanami** [on_track]: Underground infrastructure expected to be completed by end of Q3.
- **Lihir Nearshore Barrier** [on_track]: Mobilization ramps up in Q3, unlocking >5 million ounces from 2028.
- **Ahafo North** [on_track]: Ramping to full production with long‑term target of 350,000 ounces.
- **Cerro Negro expansion** [on_track]: Productivity improvements underway and expansion project progressing.
- **Brucejack dozer zone** [new]: Identified near‑mine exploration opportunity requiring limited capital.

### Fears / risks

- **Cost inflation**: Higher oil, diesel, explosives and labor costs could pressure margins.
- **Regulatory risk**: Ongoing approvals needed for Red Chris and other projects.
- **Seismic/recovery risk**: Cadia cave restart depends on seismic safety assessments.
- **Legal dispute with Barrick**: Notice of default and JV issues remain unresolved.
- **Funding uncertainty for Red Chris**: Terms of the Canadian government $500 million investment still being finalized.
- **Commodity price volatility**: Gold price fluctuations affect cash flow and margin assumptions.
- **Supply chain constraints**: Potential tightening of equipment and material supplies monitored.
- **Capital allocation pressure**: Balancing sustaining, development spend and shareholder returns amid inflation.

### Key quotes

> “Gold all-in sustaining costs were $1,621 per ounce on a byproduct basis, remaining well below our full year guidance of $1,680 per ounce.”

> “We're still working at the moment on the MOU with the Major Project Office in Canada to determine the full terms and conditions of the grant.” — Natascha Viljoen

> “For every $10 per barrel change in the price of oil, you'll see on a full year basis about a $60 million impact.”

> “We have remained resolute in protecting the interest and rights of Newmont shareholders throughout this process.”

## Quarter one-liners

- **2026 Q2:** Newmont posted a strong Q2 2026 with record free cash flow, on‑track production and cost discipline, while highlighting Red Chris regulatory progress and ongoing cost‑inflation monitoring.
- **2026 Q1:** Newmont posted record free cash flow and on‑track production, but a Cadia earthquake and a Nevada Gold Mines default process add near‑term uncertainty.
- **2025 Q4:** Newmont achieved 2025 guidance, launched enhanced capital allocation with 4% dividend increase and share buybacks, guided 2026 production of 5.3M oz gold at AISC ~$1,680/oz, advanced key projects (Ahafo North commercial, Tanami Expansion 2, Cadia panel caves), and issued notice of default to NGM par
- **2025 Q3:** —
- **2025 Q2:** Newmont posted record free cash flow and solid production, reaffirmed 2025 guidance, but a Red Chris incident and CFO departure add short‑term uncertainty.
- **2025 Q1:** Newmont delivered record Q1 free cash flow, completed its divestment program and is on track with safety, operational and capital‑allocation priorities, while monitoring tariff, cost and project execution risks.
- **2024 Q4:** Newmont reports a transformational 2024 with strong cash flow, successful divestments, safety focus and outlines 2025 guidance of 5.6M oz gold at $1,620/oz cost while advancing three key projects.
- **2024 Q3:** Newmont Q3: 1.7M oz gold, $1.6B operating cash flow, $760M FCF; divestments of Telfer/Havieron ($475M) and Akyem ($1B) on track; $500M synergy run rate achieved; $2B additional buyback authorized; 2025 core production ~5.6M oz (down from 6M) due to Lihir/Brucejack work; costs pressured by labor infl

## Theme arcs

- **Safety culture** (deteriorating): Multiple fatalities and incidents at Red Chris and Tanami increased focus on safety programs.
- **Cost management** (stable): Cost discipline maintained with AISC guidance, but price‑linked tax inflation persisted.
- **Capital allocation** (improving): Record free cash flow funded higher dividends, share buybacks and debt reduction.
- **Production guidance** (stable): 2025 guidance reaffirmed; H2 production dip noted due to sequencing.
- **Project execution** (improving): Key projects like Ahafo North and Tanami Expansion 2 stayed on track despite isolated delays.
- **Legal/JV dispute** (deteriorating): Notice of default to NGM/Barrick introduced unresolved legal risk.
- **Debt reduction** (improving): Debt retired to below $8 bn, approaching target range.
- **Price‑linked cost exposure** (deteriorating): AISC rises with gold price due to higher taxes, royalties and profit‑sharing.
- **Regulatory risk** (new): Red Chris and Cadia tailings approvals added uncertainty.
- **Market demand** (stable): Robust demand and pricing referenced consistently.

## Fear persistence

- **Safety** [recurring]: Fatalities, Red Chris incident, and Tanami investigation heightened risk.
- **Cost inflation** [recurring]: Labor, oil, diesel and price‑linked tax pressures persisted.
- **Production shortfalls** [recurring]: Lihir, Brucejack and Cadia transitions impacted output.
- **Debt level** [recurring]: Near $8 bn ceiling limited flexibility.
- **Legal dispute with Barrick/NGM** [new]: Notice of default introduced unresolved operational risk.
- **Commodity price risk** [recurring]: Higher gold prices increase taxes, royalties and profit‑sharing.
- **Tariff impact** [new]: Tariff pressures on grinding media and chemicals noted in 2025 Q1.
- **Energy price inflation** [new]: Oil and diesel price spikes added cost pressure in 2026 Q1.
- **Regulatory risk** [new]: Approvals for Red Chris and Cadia tailings created uncertainty.
- **Project execution risk** [recurring]: Ahafo North, Red Chris, and Cadia cave transitions required close monitoring.

## Guidance path

2024 Q3:maintained → 2024 Q4:maintained → 2025 Q1:maintained → 2025 Q2:maintained → 2025 Q3:vague → 2025 Q4:maintained → 2026 Q1:maintained → 2026 Q2:maintained

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