# KSPI earnings call intelligence

LOPJLB CallCard / temporal rollup · freemium · [stock page](https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/KSPI) · [Earnings tab](https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/KSPI?tab=earnings)

Updated: 2026-10-05T05:18:52

Quarters analyzed: 8

## Cross-quarter narrative

Across 8 calls for KSPI, management tone moved from +0.80 (2024 Q3) to +0.60 (2026 Q2). Latest guidance stance: maintained. Latest desk line: Kaspi posted strong Q2 2026 results with revenue up 16% and e‑commerce GMV +28% YoY, launched the Kasper AI assistant, cut deposit rates and reaffirmed full‑year guidance, while noting early AI metrics and funding cost pressures.

## Latest CallCard · Q2

Kaspi posted strong Q2 2026 results with revenue up 16% and e‑commerce GMV +28% YoY, launched the Kasper AI assistant, cut deposit rates and reaffirmed full‑year guidance, while noting early AI metrics and funding cost pressures.

**Guidance:** maintained — Full‑year GMV guidance ~20% remains unchanged and management says they are comfortably on track

**Tone:** mgmt 0.6 · Q&A pressure 0.4 · divergence 0.3

Prepared remarks emphasize revenue growth, e‑commerce expansion, AI assistant launch and upbeat full‑year outlook

### Demand visibility

Robust e‑commerce demand, especially e‑grocery in Kazakhstan and rising consumer frequency

Marketplace GMV grew 15% YoY, e‑commerce GMV +28% YoY, e‑com purchases +33% and 76 million purchases in Q2; vertical‑by‑vertical growth in Kazakhstan

### Margins / costs

Margin pressure from higher funding costs and ongoing investments

Cost of funding rose 150 bps YoY; deposit rate cut expected to help later; EBITDA growth slower than revenue; take‑rate fell 7 bps in payments

### Capital allocation

Significant capital directed to banking license, AI assistant and fintech expansion

Secured banking license and $300 M investment for fintech; launched Kasper AI assistant with new data centre; rolled out Apple/Google Pay and new shopping‑loan pilot

### Milestones

- **Kasper AI assistant launch** [on_track]: Launched 1 July, 1 in 5 customers use it, 3‑second response, 80% conversations end with recommendation
- **Banking license acquisition** [delivered]: Completed acquisition of Rabobank and secured banking license, $300 M allocated
- **New shopping‑loan product in Turkey** [on_track]: Pilot on Hepsiburada, accounts for 0.54% of GMV in June
- **Apple Pay & Google Pay integration** [delivered]: Introduced both services, adding international payment volume
- **QR payment system scaling (Alatan)** [on_track]: Scaled QR network across Kazakhstan, supporting high‑frequency transactions

### Fears / risks

- **AI adoption risk**: Early-stage Kasper metrics are encouraging but consumer trust and usage rates remain uncertain
- **Funding cost risk**: Cost of funding up 150 bps could compress margins if rate cuts are delayed
- **Inflation/rate risk**: Future deposit‑rate benefits depend on inflation‑driven central bank rate cuts
- **Regulatory risk**: New national bank reserve requirements add pressure to net income
- **Supply chain risk**: Electronics vertical faces price volatility and chip shortages
- **Fintech rollout timing**: Fintech products in Turkey slated for next year may face execution delays
- **Payment take‑rate decline**: Payments take‑rate fell 7 bps, reflecting product‑mix shift
- **Competitive pressure**: E‑commerce and fintech markets remain competitive, requiring continued investment

### Key quotes

> “The revenue went up 16%, adjusted EBITDA 5% considering the performance and strong financial position of the company”

> “Guidance reiterated, GMV up 17% as of the first half of the year. Guidance for the full year remains around 20%.”

> “Our take rate, as we have said before, is trending towards what is the majority of the payment transactions, and that is actually the transactions which are through our payment system and QR, which is priced around 0.95.” — Mikheil Lomtadze

## Quarter one-liners

- **2026 Q2:** Kaspi posted strong Q2 2026 results with revenue up 16% and e‑commerce GMV +28% YoY, launched the Kasper AI assistant, cut deposit rates and reaffirmed full‑year guidance, while noting early AI metrics and funding cost pressures.
- **2026 Q1:** —
- **2025 Q4:** Kaspi posted solid Q4 2025 results, announced a KZT 850 dividend, highlighted rapid Pay‑by‑Palm adoption and engaged‑consumer growth, and gave 2026 guidance that adds Turkey while targeting ~5% EBITDA.
- **2025 Q3:** Kaspi reports solid 20% revenue growth and strong e‑Grocery, AI and advertising expansion, but smartphone supply shortages and higher taxes curb GMV and net income.
- **2025 Q2:** Kaspi posted strong Q2 growth across payments, marketplace and e‑grocery despite high interest rates, but faces smartphone registration headwinds and rising funding costs.
- **2025 Q1:** Kaspi.kz posted solid Q1 2025 growth but trimmed GMV guidance to 15-20% as smartphone registration and macro headwinds weigh on e‑commerce.
- **2024 Q4:** Kaspi delivered a strong Q4 with 28% revenue and net‑income growth, highlighted rapid marketplace and e‑Grocery expansion, announced a lowered 2025 bottom‑line guidance of ~20% and discussed macro headwinds, Turkey integration and product roll‑outs.
- **2024 Q3:** Kaspi reported strong Q3 growth across payments, marketplace and fintech, highlighted a 25% net‑income rise, announced a cash‑funded Hepsiburada acquisition and maintained its 25% FY net‑income guidance.

## Theme arcs

- **Management tone** (deteriorating): Δ mgmt=-0.20

## Fear persistence

- **regulatory approval risk** [resolved]: 2024 Q3
- **integration risk** [recurring]: 2024 Q3, 2024 Q4
- **dividend sustainability** [resolved]: 2024 Q3
- **market competition in turkey** [resolved]: 2024 Q3
- **funding constraints** [resolved]: 2024 Q3
- **take rate pressure** [resolved]: 2024 Q3
- **interest rate environment** [resolved]: 2024 Q3
- **loan‑to‑deposit ratio rise** [resolved]: 2024 Q3
- **macro‑economic** [resolved]: 2024 Q4
- **geopolitical** [resolved]: 2024 Q4

## Guidance path

2024 Q3:maintained → 2024 Q4:lowered → 2025 Q1:lowered → 2025 Q2:maintained → 2025 Q3:lowered → 2025 Q4:maintained → 2026 Q1:vague → 2026 Q2:maintained

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Research context only. Not personalized investment advice.

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