# CP earnings call intelligence LOPJLB CallCard / temporal rollup · freemium · [stock page](https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/CP) · [Earnings tab](https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/CP?tab=earnings) Updated: 2026-09-07T07:22:19 Quarters analyzed: 8 ## Cross-quarter narrative Across 8 calls for CP, management tone moved from +0.80 (2024 Q3) to +0.80 (2026 Q2). Latest guidance stance: maintained. Latest desk line: CPKC delivers Q2 volume growth of 4%, revenue growth of 13%, OR 61.6%, EPS $1.27 (+13%); double-digit earnings growth expected for 2026 driven by cross-border Mexico growth, grain records, and synergy realization, despite coal headwinds and refined fuels volatility. ## Latest CallCard · Q2 CPKC delivers Q2 volume growth of 4%, revenue growth of 13%, OR 61.6%, EPS $1.27 (+13%); double-digit earnings growth expected for 2026 driven by cross-border Mexico growth, grain records, and synergy realization, despite coal headwinds and refined fuels volatility. **Guidance:** maintained — Management states they are 'exceeding not only our '26 guidance' and 'well positioned to deliver another year of double-digit earnings growth in 2026', but CFO notes assumptions unchanged; no formal raise announced. **Tone:** mgmt 0.8 · Q&A pressure 0.5 · divergence 0.3 Management emphasizes 'excellent results', 'vision becoming reality', 'position of strength', 'well positioned to deliver another year of double-digit earnings growth', and 'exceeding not only our '26 guidance'. ### Demand visibility Strong commercial pipeline with robust cross-border Mexico growth, grain harvest optimism, automotive record, intermodal improving; coal and refined fuels remain uncertain. Management highlights 'robust' commercial pipeline, customers seeking supply chain simplification, improving market conditions. Grain volumes up 19% with optimism for Q3 harvest. Automotive record quarter with new business wins. Intermodal SMX volumes up 30% QoQ. Coal volumes down 29% due to mine issues, expected to improve but remain headwind. Refined fuels to Mexico 'nonexistent' last 6-8 months, recovery timing unclear. Potash impacted by port maintenance. ### Margins / costs Core adjusted OR 61.6% (+90 bps YoY); fuel expense up 49% on diesel prices; comp & benefits up on stock comp and wage inflation; productivity gains offsetting; expect strong labor productivity in H2. Core adjusted comp and benefits $702M, up on higher stock-based compensation, wage inflation, volume costs, partially offset by productivity gains. Fuel expense up 49% driven by 52% higher on-highway diesel price and volume, partially offset by 4% fuel efficiency improvement. Materials up 3% on inflation and fuel impact on non-locomotive fleet. Equipment rents down 6% on improved asset utilization and velocity. Expect modest headcount growth supporting volume acceleration. ### Capital allocation Investing in fleet modernization (Wabtec locomotives), infrastructure (rail/tie replacement ahead of schedule), and capacity for growth; no discussion of buybacks, dividends, or M&A in this call. Received all 70 Wabtec locomotives scheduled for 2026, with more progressive models arriving in H2. Rail and tie replacement crews increased installation productivity 18% and 59% YoY, ahead of schedule, targeting completion before fall harvest. Operating systems consolidation completed one year ago, benefits realized. No mention of share repurchases, dividend changes, or acquisitions. ### Milestones - **Southeast Mexico Express (SMX) service launch** [on_track]: Launch and momentum behind enhanced SMX service with CSX; volumes increasing >30% from Q1. - **Mexico Midwest Express (MMX) service growth** [on_track]: Continued growth on MMX service, well positioned for favorable truck-to-rail conversion dynamics. - **Americold facility at Port of Saint John** [delivered]: Opened another Americold facility at Port of Saint John in Atlantic Canada, expanding cold chain capacity. - **CPKC land bridge Canada-Mexico traffic** [on_track]: Increasing traffic flows between Canada and Mexico via unique land bridge; guided to $600M run rate this year, 65% Western Canada-Mexico. - **Wabtec locomotive fleet modernization** [on_track]: All 70 Wabtec locomotives for 2026 received; progressive models to arrive in H2; improving reliability on Transcon. - **Rail and tie replacement program** [on_track]: Crews increased rail and tie installation productivity 18% and 59% YoY; expect to be off mainline in Western Canada before fall harvest. - **Canadian and U.S. operating systems consolidation** [delivered]: Completed one year ago; benefits realized in alignment, common processes, real-time visibility, faster issue resolution. - **Port of St. John and Lazaro Cardenas growth initiatives** [on_track]: Executing specific growth initiatives at both ports to support international intermodal volumes. ### Fears / risks - **Coal demand sustainability**: Mine production challenges caused 29% volume decline; recovery timeline uncertain; 2027 target to return to prior levels but not guaranteed. - **Refined fuels to Mexico volatility**: Business 'keeps me up at night' per CMO; supply chain ready but volumes near zero for 6-8 months; dependent on Gulf arbitrage openings that open and close unpredictably. - **FX and fuel cost volatility**: CFO notes fuel assumption increased for next 30-60 days; FX moved from $1.38 to $1.40-1.41; may impact operating ratio due to fuel surcharge revenue recognized at 100% OR with expense lag. - **Grain harvest timing and yield**: Optimistic on Southern territory conditions but harvest timing uncertain; modeled 3-5 year average for Q4; last year volumes slower from Southern territory. - **Macroeconomic uncertainty**: Management acknowledges 'uncertainty remains in parts of the macroeconomic environment' despite improving conditions in several markets. - **Safety metrics deterioration**: Both personal injury frequency and train accident rates increased YoY; FRA train accident 1.0, personal injury 0.96; management 'disappointed' but committed to improvement. - **Labor productivity with volume acceleration**: Expect modest headcount growth to support accelerating volumes; risk that productivity gains may not fully offset cost inflation. - **Integration benefit realization**: While operating systems consolidation benefits are being realized, full synergy capture across three national systems remains ongoing execution risk. ### Key quotes > “we're well positioned to deliver another year of double-digit earnings growth in 2026” > “I remain very confident in our ability to deliver mid-single-digit volume growth in 2026” > “ECP, you're right. It's sort of the one area that keeps me up at night is the refined fuels into Mexico.” > “Specific to what I consider our land bridge business, I think I guided towards -- you can see a run rate to get to $600 million on that business this year.” — John Brooks > “We're exceeding not only our '26 guidance, but carrying a whole lot of momentum into '27.” ## Quarter one-liners - **2026 Q2:** CPKC delivers Q2 volume growth of 4%, revenue growth of 13%, OR 61.6%, EPS $1.27 (+13%); double-digit earnings growth expected for 2026 driven by cross-border Mexico growth, grain records, and synergy realization, despite coal headwinds and refined fuels volatility. - **2026 Q1:** CPKC Q1 2026: revenue $3.7B, 2% RTM growth, core OR 63%, EPS $1.04; record grain volumes, labor agreements with SMART-TD/BLET, new buyback 45M shares, dividend +17.5%; Q2 momentum, OR improvement expected. - **2025 Q4:** CPKC posted record safety, modest revenue growth and an industry‑best operating ratio, while guiding to mid‑single‑digit RTM growth in 2026 despite weather, tariff and macro headwinds. - **2025 Q3:** CPKC delivered strong Q3 with 5% volume growth, 220bps OR improvement to 60.7%, EPS up 11%; maintains 10-14% earnings growth guidance; highlights unique 3-country network amid UP/NS merger concerns. - **2025 Q2:** CPKC posted 7% volume growth, 3% revenue increase and improved operating ratio while highlighting integration progress, new partnership ramps and regulatory focus amid the UP‑NS merger backdrop. - **2025 Q1:** CPKC posted strong Q1 results with 8% revenue growth, a 150‑bp operating‑ratio improvement and record safety metrics, but highlighted macro trade‑policy and currency uncertainty prompting a guidance adjustment. - **2024 Q4:** CPKC delivered Q4 2024 revenue of $3.9B (+3%), OR 57.1 (+160bps), core EPS $1.29 (+9%); 2025 guidance: mid-single-digit volume growth, earnings growth 12-18% in line with 2023 Investor Day targets. - **2024 Q3:** CPKC posted 6% revenue growth and improved operating metrics despite a July derailment and an August strike, reaffirming full‑year guidance and highlighting a new hydrogen locomotive, STB‑approved CSX link, and the upcoming Laredo bridge second span. ## Theme arcs - **Management tone** (stable): Δ mgmt=+0.00 ## Fear persistence - **labor disruptions** [resolved]: 2024 Q3 - **operational incidents** [resolved]: 2024 Q3 - **macro softness** [resolved]: 2024 Q3 - **commodity price volatility** [resolved]: 2024 Q3 - **competitive gateway congestion** [resolved]: 2024 Q3 - **safety performance** [resolved]: 2024 Q3 - **regulatory risk** [recurring]: 2024 Q3, 2025 Q1 - **supply‑chain volatility** [resolved]: 2024 Q3 - **trade policy / tariffs** [resolved]: 2024 Q4 - **macro demand softness** [resolved]: 2024 Q4 ## Guidance path 2024 Q3:maintained → 2024 Q4:maintained → 2025 Q1:vague → 2025 Q2:maintained → 2025 Q3:maintained → 2025 Q4:maintained → 2026 Q1:maintained → 2026 Q2:maintained --- Research context only. Not personalized investment advice. API: `GET /bff/api/bigfive/earnings-intel/CP`