# ASML earnings call intelligence LOPJLB CallCard / temporal rollup · freemium · [stock page](https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/ASML) · [Earnings tab](https://www.lopjlb.com/stock/ASML?tab=earnings) Updated: 2026-10-09T05:56:00 Quarters analyzed: 8 ## Latest CallCard · Q2 ASML raised FY2026 guidance to EUR 43-45B sales and 54-56% gross margin on strong AI-driven demand in advanced logic and DRAM; High-NA EUV progressing with Intel 18A production use. **Guidance:** raised — FY2026 total net sales raised to EUR 43-45B (gross margin 54-56%); Q3 sales guided EUR 11-12B (gross margin 55-57%). **Tone:** mgmt 0.7 · Q&A pressure 0.5 · divergence 0.3 Management raised full-year guidance, emphasized multi-year demand visibility, announced capacity expansions for 2027-2028, and highlighted High-NA EUV production milestone with Intel. ### Demand visibility Strong demand visibility extending multiple years with order backlog increasing. Customers sharing multi-year forecasts; backlog growing with broad customer mix; 2027 Low-NA EUV nearly fully covered; 2028 orders already significant; capacity increases planned for 2027 (+30% Low-NA EUV, +30% immersion) and investigating further 30% for 2028. ### Margins / costs Q2 gross margin 54% above guidance due to high-margin IBM sales; FY guidance 54-56%; operating leverage improving with controlled OpEx growth. Q2 gross margin 54% (above guidance) driven by high-margin Installed Base Management components; FY2026 gross margin guided 54-56%; R&D EUR 1.3B in Q2 (higher due to tech/IT transformation costs), SG&A ~EUR 0.3B; Q3 R&D ~EUR 1.2B, SG&A ~EUR 0.4B; management emphasizes operating leverage improvement. ### Capital allocation Dividend and share buyback continuing; Q2 paid final 2025 dividend EUR 2.70/share (total EUR 7.50 for 2025); Q2 bought back EUR 1.1B shares under 2026-2028 program; Q3 interim dividend EUR 1.88/share payable Aug 5. 2025 total dividend EUR 7.50/share; 2026 first interim dividend EUR 1.88/share; share buyback program 2026-2028 active with EUR 1.1B repurchased in Q2; free cash flow Q2 EUR 1.3B; cash and short-term investments EUR 7.6B. ### Milestones - **High-NA EUV production readiness** [on_track]: Progressing toward HVM maturity; Intel using High-NA on 18A for Core Ultra Series 3 production - **Low-NA EUV shipments 2026** [on_track]: Expect ~65 systems in 2026, >45% YoY net system sales growth - **Immersion DUV shipments 2026** [on_track]: Expect ~130 systems, similar to 2025 output level - **Dry DUV shipments** [on_track]: Increased markedly in 2026 - **Metrology/inspection adoption** [on_track]: Major traction across all key customers due to greater process control intensity - **Installed Base Management growth** [on_track]: Expected >30% growth in 2026 driven by EUV installed base services and upgrades ### Fears / risks - **High-NA EUV maturity**: Timeline and cost-effectiveness versus Low-NA multi-patterning uncertain; customers may find Low-NA triple patterning competitive - **China revenue concentration**: ~20% of total net sales from China amid ongoing export control risks - **Pricing pressure**: Potential pricing adjustments needed if High-NA value proposition delayed relative to Low-NA improvements - **Supply chain constraints**: Capacity expansion plans dependent on supply chain partners (e.g., ZEISS for optics) - **Geopolitical/export controls**: Implied risk to China business and global supply chain - **Customer capex cyclicality**: Aggressive capacity additions by customers could reverse if end-market demand softens - **Technology transition execution**: Transition from E to F platform and High-NA insertion carry execution risk - **Operating leverage sustainability**: Aggressive roadmap with controlled OpEx may face pressure if revenue growth slows ### Key quotes > “customer demand remains very strong, with visibility now extending several years into the future” > “we now expect total net sales between EUR 43 billion and EUR 45 billion, with a gross margin between 54% and 56%” > “Intel Foundry is using ASML High-NA EUV technology on the Intel 18A process node to produce a subset of its Intel Core Ultra Series 3 processors” > “we believe that with the team that we have today, we can really entertain a very aggressive roadmap going forward” > “the key, again, for High-NA to be cost effective, to beat the cost of Low-NA plus immersion multi-patterning is to bring High-NA to the right maturity” ## Quarter one-liners - **2026 Q2:** ASML raised FY2026 guidance to EUR 43-45B sales and 54-56% gross margin on strong AI-driven demand in advanced logic and DRAM; High-NA EUV progressing with Intel 18A production use. - **2026 Q1:** — - **2025 Q4:** — - **2025 Q3:** — - **2025 Q2:** ASML posted Q2 revenue at the top of guidance, strong EUV and upgrade sales, but flagged macro‑geopolitical uncertainty, tariff risks and lower H2 margin due to High NA dilution. - **2025 Q1:** ASML reports solid Q1 2025 results with EUR7.7B sales, maintains 2025 guidance of EUR30-35B revenue, but highlights rising tariff uncertainty and High NA EUV progress with three customer installations. - **2024 Q4:** ASML Q4 net sales €9.3B above guidance; 2025 revenue guided €30-35B with 51-53% gross margin; AI key growth driver, China sales to normalize; High NA EUV progress with two systems accepted, third installing. - **2024 Q3:** — ## Guidance path 2024 Q3:vague → 2024 Q4:maintained → 2025 Q1:maintained → 2025 Q2:maintained → 2025 Q3:vague → 2025 Q4:vague → 2026 Q1:vague → 2026 Q2:raised --- Research context only. Not personalized investment advice. API: `GET /bff/api/bigfive/earnings-intel/ASML`