# FOMC Policy Desk

Machine-readable summary of the LOPJLB FOMC policy desk page.

Canonical URL: https://www.lopjlb.com/fomc

A running policy desk built from public inputs: the FOMC meeting calendar, market-implied decision odds, the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and LOPJLB's market regime model. The Fed staff's pre-meeting briefing book (the Tealbook) is released with a five-year lag; this page is the shadow version readable today, refreshed continuously.

## Live APIs (no auth)

```bash
curl -s https://www.lopjlb.com/bff/api/bigfive/economic-calendar
curl -s 'https://www.lopjlb.com/bff/api/prediction-markets/markets?category=fed&limit=200'
curl -s https://www.lopjlb.com/bff/api/market/treasury-rates
curl -s https://www.lopjlb.com/bff/api/hmm/latest
```

## What you get

- **Next meeting**. Decision date and time (ET), days until, consensus vs current target, press-conference time. Source: LOPJLB economic calendar sync.
- **Market-implied decision odds**. Per-meeting outcome distributions (cut 50+/cut 25/hold/hike 25/hike 50+) from Polymarket, with day-over-day deltas and traded volume. Source: LOPJLB prediction-markets sync (Kalshi + Polymarket).
- **Rates & the curve**. Yield curve (1M–30Y) latest vs one month ago, key tenors, 2s10s and 3m10y spreads with inversion flags.
- **Financial conditions**. LOPJLB's cross-asset regime model: current regime (BULL/RECOVERY/RANGING/BEAR/CRISIS), state probabilities, risk-off probability, VIX.
- **The docket**. Upcoming U.S. events: Fed speakers, Beige Book, CPI/PCE, payrolls, GDP, with consensus and prior. Plus latest released prints.

## FAQ

### When is the next FOMC meeting?

The FOMC meets eight times a year, roughly every six weeks. The live next decision date, consensus, and press-conference time are shown at the top of the [FOMC desk](https://www.lopjlb.com/fomc) and on the [economic calendar](https://www.lopjlb.com/calendar). Decisions are announced at 2:00 PM ET with a press conference thirty minutes later.

### What is the Fed expected to do at the next meeting?

The odds panel shows the market-implied probability of each outcome (cut, hold, hike) from real-money prediction markets, updated continuously. These are traded prices, not analyst surveys, so they reprice with every data release and Fed speech.

### What is the Tealbook?

The Tealbook is the Federal Reserve staff’s pre-meeting briefing document: Book A covers the economic outlook, Book B the policy alternatives. It is published with a five-year lag; historical editions are archived on FRASER and the Board’s website. This page is a shadow version assembled from the public inputs available today.

### Is this the Fed’s actual forecast?

No. The real Tealbook stays confidential for five years. Everything here is built from public data: the meeting calendar, market-implied odds, Treasury yields, and LOPJLB’s own market regime model. It is research and education, not the Fed’s view and not investment advice.

### How often does this page update?

The page re-renders every few minutes. Prediction-market odds and the docket refresh continuously from their upstream syncs; Treasury yields update each trading day; the regime model re-runs nightly with the platform’s signal pipeline.

## Background

- The Tealbook (Book A: outlook; Book B: policy alternatives) is the FOMC staff's briefing document, public after five years. Archives: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ and https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc_historical.htm
- The staff's principal macro model, FRB/US, is public with code and data: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/us-models-about.htm

## Related

- [Economic calendar](https://www.lopjlb.com/calendar)
- [Prediction markets](https://www.lopjlb.com/prediction-markets)
- [Treasury rates](https://www.lopjlb.com/treasury-rates)
- [Methodology (regime model)](https://www.lopjlb.com/methodology)
- [How LOPJLB works](https://www.lopjlb.com/how-it-works)