# Long-dated bear spreads

Daily quote-estimated bear verticals across the chain (short strike from 20% above to 25% below spot), about 3–13 months out, on every optionable stock and ETF LOPJLB tracks — put debit and call credit, listed as separate rows when both books qualify. Both win if the stock stays at or below the short strike. Put rows prepay the debit; call rows collect a credit and risk width minus that credit. Credit is not spare cash. Prices are not fills.

- **Side** — PUT (debit: buy the higher put, sell the lower put) or CALL (credit: sell the lower call, buy the higher call)
- **Spread** — long/short strikes, e.g. 110/105p; the long strike is the higher one
- **Cost** — PUT: ASK debit (higher put ask − lower put bid). CALL: CREDIT now; defined risk is width − credit. MID is the midpoint. Neither is a fill.
- **Cushion** — (short strike − spot) / spot; positive means the short strike sits above the price and the stock only has to stay below it; negative means it needs a drop. Not protection
- **APY** — that row’s natural ROI calendar run-rate; RANK uses it. Put and call compete in one sort. Not a yield.
- **Breakeven** — PUT: long strike − debit. CALL: short strike + credit
- **Geometry** — premium / width, fill gap, breakeven versus spot
- **Level** — signed short-strike distance to the nearest nightly ATR/EMA/20-day/52-week stock level; not a target
- **Path depth** — breach share, median rally inside a hold, and time above the short; stock history, not option P&L

History fields keep the bull field names but carry the bear side: `historical_hit_pct` is the share of past same-length holds that closed at or below the relative short; `historical_p10_return_pct` holds the 90th-percentile (rally tail) stock return; `historical_median_max_drawdown_pct` holds the median rally inside a hold; `historical_median_time_below_short_pct` holds time above the short; `typical_drawdown_pct` holds the typical 6-month rally. `historical_median_return_pct` is the raw stock return (negative is good for a bear). `crash_put` is always null.

With the same two strikes the put debit and call credit have the same expiry payoff. They differ in cash (debit paid up front vs width − credit held as collateral), early assignment of a deep in-the-money short leg, and fill quality. Not advice.

Page: https://www.lopjlb.com/bear-spreads

Live API (no auth):
- `GET https://www.lopjlb.com/bff/api/bear-spreads/summary`
- `GET https://www.lopjlb.com/bff/api/bear-spreads/opportunities` (`structure=put_debit|call_credit`)
- `GET https://www.lopjlb.com/bff/api/bear-spreads/runs`

Rows carry `low_52w` and `spot_vs_low_52w_pct` (spot vs the lowest close of the last 252 sessions); `sort=low_52w` lists names nearest that low first. Context, not support.

`exh=release|recent|seller_zone` on opportunities is Pro-gated, and per-row `exh_state` is null below Pro. Daily chips, not live I·EXH. For a bear spread a seller-exhaustion release is bounce risk; RANK subtracts 0.5 for it.

## Latest update

- Status: Early research
- Updated: 2026-11-13T20:11:55.845944Z
- Setups found: 3136
- On the board: 30
- Being tracked: 30
- Completed: 0

Prices are estimates from market quotes, not filled trades. Defined risk can be lost and gains are capped.

## Latest opportunities

| Ticker | Side | Spread | Expiration | Days left | Strike position | Price path | Ask or credit / mid | Premium / width | Fill gap | Ask APY / mid APY | Max return | Cushion | Nearest level | Weakest OI | Path breach / rally / above | Exact episode marks |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|---|
| GLD | CALL | 415/400c | 2027-06-17 | 216 | Deep cushion | Steadier history · Primary list | $3.10 / $3.38 | 20.7% | 1.8% | 43.8% / 48.8% | 25.9% | 12.7% | EMA200 +3% | 4855 | 48.6% / 17.6% / 0.0% | - |
| GDXJ | CALL | 119/112c | 2027-05-21 | 189 | Deep cushion | Steadier history · Primary list | $1.45 / $2.58 | 20.7% | 16.1% | 49.9% / 111.5% | 25.8% | 13.1% | 20H −1% | 0 | 59.3% / 35.8% / 6.2% | - |
| BMNR | CALL | 23/21c | 2027-06-17 | 216 | Deep cushion | High-octane history · Primary list | $0.44 / $0.69 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 45.9% / 87.4% | 27.1% | 18.5% | EMA50 −4% | 139 | 77.7% / 483.5% / 14.1% | - |
| BNO | CALL | 70/65c | 2027-04-16 | 154 | Medium cushion | Steadier history · Secondary list | $1.10 / $1.50 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 65.8% / 100.3% | 27.8% | 6.7% | EMA50 +5% | 2295 | 70.7% / 23.6% / 19.8% | - |
| AAL | CALL | 16/15c | 2027-02-19 | 98 | Deep cushion | Steadier history · Primary list | $0.22 / $0.26 | 22.0% | 3.5% | 97.2% / 118.9% | 26.1% | 12.3% | ATR-F +5% | 1010 | 58.6% / 29.8% / 7.4% | - |
| DIA | CALL | 550/540c | 2027-03-19 | 126 | Near today’s price | Steadier history · Primary list | $3.40 / $3.88 | 34.0% | 4.8% | 148.4% / 182.3% | 51.2% | 3.4% | ATR-F +0% | 398 | 74.8% / 10.3% / 26.4% | - |
| EEM | CALL | 65/62c | 2027-03-19 | 126 | Near today’s price | Steadier history · Primary list | $1.05 / $1.20 | 35.0% | 5.0% | 153.0% / 189.7% | 52.8% | 2.2% | EMA200 −1% | 11951 | 83.8% / 15.0% / 49.4% | - |
| ABBV | CALL | 330/320c | 2027-02-19 | 98 | Medium cushion | Steadier history · Primary list | $2.25 / $2.65 | 22.5% | 4.0% | 107.3% / 133.4% | 28.8% | 8.2% | 52H +8% | 478 | 58.2% / 15.3% / 7.4% | - |
| DIA | CALL | 550/525c | 2027-03-19 | 126 | At today’s price | Steadier history · Primary list | $11.15 / $11.63 | 44.6% | 1.9% | 232.7% / 251.3% | 80.3% | 0.5% | EMA50 +1% | 134 | 95.4% / 10.3% / 66.7% | - |
| EEM | CALL | 70/65c | 2027-06-30 | 229 | Medium cushion | Steadier history · Primary list | $1.04 / $2.17 | 20.8% | 22.6% | 41.2% / 120.9% | 25.8% | 7.1% | ATR-T +2% | 156 | 69.3% / 22.0% / 20.3% | - |
| GDX | CALL | 101/95c | 2027-09-17 | 308 | Deep cushion | Steadier history · Primary list | $1.30 / $1.68 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 32.4% / 45.4% | 27.3% | 16.5% | 20H +4% | 34 | 60.2% / 38.6% / 6.6% | - |
| A | CALL | 200/185c | 2027-02-19 | 98 | Medium cushion | Steadier history · Primary list | $3.20 / $4.55 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 100.5% / 161.5% | 27.0% | 6.5% | 52H +2% | 7 | 67.3% / 18.2% / 19.1% | - |
| BND | PUT | 72/69p | 2027-03-19 | 126 | At today’s price | Steadier history · Primary list | $1.55 / $1.38 | 51.7% | 5.8% | 266.3% / 336.4% | 91.9% | -2.2% | 52L −1% | 10 | 100.0% / 2.2% / 100.0% | - |
| ADBE | PUT | 270/250p | 2027-06-17 | 216 | Near today’s price | Steadier history · Primary list | $13.25 / $12.10 | 66.3% | 5.8% | 85.8% / 110.0% | 50.8% | 2.9% | EMA50 +1% | 648 | 92.8% / 37.7% / 63.8% | - |
| SNDK | CALL | 1060/980c | 2027-02-19 | 98 | Deep cushion | High-octane history · Primary list | $19.00 / $24.70 | 23.8% | 7.1% | 115.9% / 166.2% | 31.1% | 12.3% | 20L +20% | 19 | 90.9% / 178.9% / 70.6% | - |
| EFA | PUT | 107/101p | 2027-03-19 | 126 | At today’s price | Steadier history · Primary list | $3.28 / $2.60 | 54.7% | 11.4% | 238.1% / 376.8% | 82.2% | -2.9% | 20L −1% | 5740 | 99.9% / 11.5% / 94.3% | - |
| SOLS | CALL | 75/70c | 2027-05-21 | 189 | Medium cushion | High-octane history · Primary list | $1.20 / $2.05 | 24.0% | 17.0% | 60.1% / 132.8% | 31.1% | 6.4% | ATR-T +3% | 27 | 98.6% / 43.4% / 70.8% | - |
| ABNB | CALL | 220/210c | 2027-06-17 | 216 | Deep cushion | Steadier history · Primary list | $2.05 / $3.27 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 43.2% / 81.8% | 25.6% | 12.9% | 52H +10% | 360 | 69.7% / 36.7% / 5.4% | - |
| ALAB | PUT | 260/240p | 2027-04-16 | 154 | Medium cushion | High-octane history · Primary list | $15.30 / $13.18 | 76.5% | 10.6% | 72.5% / 122.4% | 30.6% | 8.5% | EMA200 −11% | 65 | 88.0% / 146.9% / 47.2% | - |
| DIA | CALL | 605/555c | 2027-09-30 | 321 | Medium cushion | Steadier history · Primary list | $10.65 / $15.22 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 30.7% / 49.7% | 27.0% | 6.2% | 52H +2% | 1 | 75.9% / 19.9% / 27.5% | - |
| AAPL | CALL | 410/380c | 2027-02-19 | 98 | Medium cushion | Steadier history · Primary list | $6.85 / $7.05 | 22.8% | 0.7% | 109.9% / 114.1% | 29.5% | 6.3% | 52H +7% | 4113 | 77.8% / 23.6% / 37.5% | - |
| NFLX | CALL | 80/74c | 2027-12-17 | 399 | Deep cushion | High-octane history · Primary list | $1.35 / $1.63 | 22.5% | 4.6% | 26.2% / 33.6% | 28.7% | 18.8% | 20H +7% | 910 | 84.8% / 104.2% / 54.2% | - |
| GDX | CALL | 90/84c | 2027-09-17 | 308 | Near today’s price | Steadier history · Primary list | $2.05 / $2.45 | 34.2% | 6.7% | 60.9% / 81.1% | 51.4% | 3.0% | EMA200 −2% | 30 | 90.9% / 38.6% / 42.3% | - |
| PLTR | CALL | 210/200c | 2027-09-17 | 308 | Deep cushion | High-octane history · Primary list | $2.35 / $2.95 | 23.5% | 6.0% | 36.1% / 49.3% | 30.5% | 18.4% | ATR-T −1% | 1760 | 77.8% / 98.4% / 43.7% | - |
| ABBV | CALL | 320/300c | 2027-03-19 | 126 | Near today’s price | Steadier history · Primary list | $7.25 / $7.88 | 36.3% | 3.1% | 164.3% / 187.6% | 56.7% | 1.4% | 52H +2% | 1066 | 92.3% / 18.3% / 58.6% | - |
| AAPL | CALL | 395/375c | 2027-04-16 | 154 | Near today’s price | Steadier history · Primary list | $6.90 / $7.25 | 34.5% | 1.8% | 124.5% / 134.4% | 52.5% | 4.9% | 52H +5% | 1454 | 89.0% / 31.7% / 55.7% | - |
| AXP | PUT | 340/310p | 2027-09-17 | 308 | At today’s price | Steadier history · Primary list | $15.55 / $14.93 | 51.8% | 2.1% | 109.9% / 119.5% | 92.8% | -3.0% | 20L −1% | 67 | 99.8% / 34.9% / 90.1% | - |
| AMZN | PUT | 280/260p | 2027-06-17 | 216 | At today’s price | Steadier history · Primary list | $10.70 / $10.20 | 53.5% | 2.5% | 146.5% / 161.9% | 86.7% | -2.1% | EMA50 +1% | 1391 | 99.1% / 44.8% / 83.9% | - |
| AAPL | CALL | 450/420c | 2027-09-17 | 308 | Deep cushion | Steadier history · Primary list | $6.30 / $6.78 | 21.0% | 1.6% | 31.4% / 34.5% | 26.5% | 17.5% | 52H +18% | 1020 | 81.2% / 57.1% / 38.5% | - |
| AAPL | CALL | 380/360c | 2027-04-16 | 154 | At today’s price | Steadier history · Primary list | $8.95 / $9.45 | 44.7% | 2.5% | 191.5% / 211.7% | 80.8% | 0.7% | 52H +1% | 3056 | 96.5% / 31.7% / 74.5% | - |

## How bear spreads work

A put debit buys a higher-strike put and sells a lower-strike put. A call credit sells a lower-strike call and buys a higher-strike call. Same expiry. Same cushion sleeve when the short strike matches.

### What this board screens

Long-dated verticals across the chain, about 3–13 months out. The short strike sits anywhere from about 20% above today’s price to 25% below it, and every row competes in one overall rank. Above spot the stock only has to stay below the short strike; below spot it has to fall to it.

Strike sleeves: deep cushion (short 12–20% above spot), mid (6–12% above), near (1–6% above), ATM (1% above to 3% below), OTM (3–10% below; needs a drop), and far OTM (10–25% below; needs a big drop). Steadier and high-octane describe past price path, not a recommendation.

### The numbers

- Put debit: max loss = net debit; max profit = width − debit; breakeven = long − debit
- Call credit: max profit = credit; max loss = width − credit; breakeven = short + credit

Per share; one contract is 100 shares. Credit is not spare cash to invest. RANK uses each row’s own fee-adjusted natural ROI.

### The base rate

Stocks drift up. On 50,155 monthly entries across 379 tickers (2010–2026), a hold of about 250 sessions with the short strike on the safe side by a given cushion finished there:

| Cushion | Bull spread | Bear spread |
|---:|---:|---:|
| 0% | 57.8% | 42.3% |
| 5% | 65.0% | 50.0% |
| 10% | 71.3% | 57.4% |
| 15% | 76.4% | 64.3% |

Bear spreads need more cushion for the same odds. The sample is today’s surviving tickers, which flatters bulls slightly.

### Rank, HIT, TYP, and EXH

RANK is a bounded bear hold score: calendar APY (capped at 100%), fillability, cushion versus the stock’s typical 6-month rally (largest weight), the bear HIT rate, past median move down, a right-tail rally penalty, small bonuses for weak trend (negative Sharpe) and a low quality score, White Arrow direction (down +0.3, up −0.3), HMM regime (BEAR/CRISIS +0.25, BULL −0.25), and −0.5 when a seller-exhaustion or EXH-buy release signals bounce risk. Trend effects are modest: the weakest 12-month momentum quintile finished a 5% bear hold 53.7% of the time vs 46–50% for the rest. HIT and TYP are stock-path facts, not option P&L.

### Gaps and assignment

Takeovers, squeezes and earnings can gap a stock through both strikes; every bear spread is exposed the same way and the loss stops at the max loss. A deep in-the-money short leg can be assigned early: the short call on OTM and far call credits (especially before an ex-dividend date) and the short put on deep and mid put debits.

## How to read this page

- Two rows when both books qualify: one winner per symbol × sleeve × DTE × structure.
- Opportunities have about 3–13 months until expiration; short strikes run from 20% above to 25% below spot.
- Cushion is the distance from today’s stock price up to the short strike. It is not guaranteed protection.
- We post only complete market-hours scans and never invent missing prices.
- Research only. No direction forecast. Not investment advice. LOPJLB does not place or track these trades.